Papal campaign began years ago
2013-02-13 22:04
Vatican City - Pope Benedict may have shocked the world
by announcing his resignation on Monday, but some cardinals apparently started
manoeuvring for the succession as long as two years ago.
Papal elections are among the world's most mysterious,
with no declared candidates and more bluffing than a high-stakes poker game.
No cardinal can openly campaign for a job whose election
is said to be inspired by the Holy Spirit.
But behind the scenes, at meetings inside the Vatican's
thick walls and dinners at the finer Roman restaurants, the cardinal electors
size up potential candidates among themselves and drop subtle hints to Vatican
watchers in the media about who's up or down.
This round of discreet discussions, dubbed
"totopapa" or "pope sweepstakes" by irreverent Romans, was
only kicked into a higher gear on Monday when Benedict announced the first
papal abdication for centuries.
It will go into overdrive when cardinals from around the
world arrive in the next few days.
But Benedict seems to have set the Roman rumour mill in
motion back in 2010 when he told a German interviewer that he would consider
resigning if he felt physically unable to continue.
"This confession shook up everybody who's anybody at
the Vatican and led some cardinals to launch into the semi-official
battle," French journalist Caroline Pigozzi wrote in her newly published
book Le Vatican indiscret (The Indiscreet Vatican).
Their approach is the polar opposite of a modern US-style
political campaign with primaries, televised debates, major donors and Facebook
and Twitter strategies.
"Paradoxically, one must not appear in the papers
and certainly not be photographed," she wrote. "A man of the church
is not a star and must always remember the saying 'whoever enters the conclave
a pope comes out a cardinal'."
John Thavis, a veteran Rome correspondent whose book The
Vatican Diaries comes out on 21 February, said he had Benedict's comments from
2010 in mind as he rushed to finish it.
"I was afraid he would announce his resignation
before we went to print," he told Reuters. "I thought he would do it
on 22 February, the Feast of the Chair of Saint Peter, which is the feast
associated with the authority of the pope."
Conclave in mid-March
About one-third of the 117 cardinals eligible to vote
work in the Vatican bureaucracy, or Curia, and can easily compare notes on
rising stars or unwanted candidates when they meet.
The others, archbishops overseeing major Catholic centres
around the world, are now booking their flights to Rome, with many hoping to
attend the pope's farewell to his cardinals on 28 February. Once they're here,
the quiet talk starts in earnest.
Vatican spokesperson Reverend Federico Lombardi confirmed
on Wednesday that the conclave would start as early as 15 March, but the exact
date still had to be worked out.
Normally when a pope dies, cardinals rush to Rome for the
funeral held on the ninth day after his death.
Once here, the discreet exchanges they may have had by
phone or email with friendly cardinals can turn into face-to-face discussions.
Lombardi said the fact there is no funeral this time
should not mean "that the cardinals should not arrive in Rome, start
meeting and speaking to each other and reflecting on the state of the church and
on the criteria of the choice of a successor."
Openly naming candidates is considered bad form, but many
use the polite fallback of discussing which qualities the new man should have
and leaving unsaid who fits the bill.
Before the conclave, the Vatican holds plenary meetings
called general congregations where cardinals discuss issues facing the church
and report on conditions in their home countries.
The exact date for these meetings this time has not yet
been fixed.
No names are debated at these sessions, but they double
as platforms where undeclared candidates attract attention by making speeches
and meeting cardinals they don't know.
Grand electors
The general congregations before the 2005 conclave proved
decisive for the then Cardinal Joseph Ratzinger, who as the dean of the College
of Cardinals moderated the discussions.
Several cardinals said afterwards his gracious way of
conducting the sessions and summing up comments that had been made convinced
them he was the best choice for the papacy.
Another subtle influence as the cardinals gather is the
role of the so-called "grand electors”, cardinals who may not be in the
running but can influence groups to vote for their man.
Polish-born Karol Wojtyla could not have become Pope John
Paul without the lobbying by the then Vienna Cardinal Franz Koenig and some
German cardinals.
When Benedict named an unusual number of Italian and
Curia prelates as cardinals in February 2012, several other Church leaders
apparently read this as a bid by his deputy Cardinal Tarcisio Bertone to sway
the next conclave.
Their revenge came with the Vatileaks scandal, which saw
unprecedented leaks of internal Vatican documents that cast Bertone in a very
negative light.
Benedict's former butler, Paolo Gabriele, was sentenced
to 18 months jail by a Vatican court last October for leaking the documents,
but pardoned by Benedict just before Christmas.
The scandal deeply embarrassed Benedict, who surprised
the Church by naming six non-European cardinals in November to partly tilt the
balance away from the Old Continent again.
No clear favourite
Before the 2005 conclave, Benedict and the liberal
favourite Cardinal Carlo Maria Martini of Milan stood out from the rest of the
field as the most qualified to become pope.
Martini, who died last year, was ill and threw his
support behind Buenos Aires Cardinal Jorge Bergoglio, but it was not enough to
stem the conservative tide swelling for Ratzinger.
No single favourite stands out this time, which could
make it harder for the conclave to crystallise around one man and reach the
necessary two-thirds majority in a few voting rounds.
Benedict's continued presence at the Vatican, even if he
never leaves the small monastery on its grounds where he will live and never
speaks in public, could also influence the vote.
Cardinals sometimes opt for a clean break from a former
pope, as they did in 1958 in choosing the affable Pope John XXIII after the
stern Pope Pius XII, but some may not want to back a departure from the
policies of a still living ex-pope.
