Race tight between Bush, Kerry
2004-07-01 14:45
Washington - Four months before the November presidential elections, US President George W Bush and his Democratic rival, John Kerry, are still running neck-and-neck.
"This is really basically quite unprecedented," said Stephen Hess of the Brookings Institution, who has been following US presidential elections for the past 50 years.
As the economy improves and the interim Iraqi government takes its first steps after the handover of power this week, Bush's standing seems to have improved.
But Kerry seems to have improved his fund raising, collecting more money from his Democratic supporters than the president was able to collect from Republicans.
According to the most recent opinion polls, Bush's approval rating remains under 50%. American electoral history indicates that no president has been re-elected if less than half of voters were satisfied with his performance four months before the elections.
Republican analysts point out that observers must pay less attention to the popularity rating and more to a gap dividing voters who are satisfied and those who are not.
A recent Republican poll conducted for George Washington University showed that 51% of Americans were dissatisfied with Bush while 48% were satisfied.
That indicates a three-point gap between the two camps.
In all six US presidential elections since 1980, this gap exceeded 10 points four months before the vote, according to Ed Goeas, director of the Tarrance Institute that conducted the poll.
This makes the current gap insignificant, he said.
Small group still undecided
Hess, meanwhile, underscores the historically small share of voters that describe themselves as undecided.
"The fact is that at this point, usually about one-third of the electorate are undecided," he pointed out. "And now it's more like 20%. There is no wiggle room for the candidates. Eighty percent of the people seem quite firm.
"And when you look at these 20% and you push them to where they're leading to, that splits evenly and when you look at the composition of those people, you realise that a lot of them are not going to vote anyway."
Bush dedicated most of the month of June to Iraq, making foreign trips to rally international support for the Iraqi interim government installed in Baghdad.
He insists he has succeeded in this endeavour by securing unanimous approval for a UN Security Council resolution expressing support for the Iraqi government as well as Nato's agreement to help train Iraqi security forces.
The administration is also expressing its desire not to heighten international tensions, particularly with France, a clear departure from the confrontational course followed in 2002 and 2003.
This tactic could pull the rug from under Democrats who accuse the Republican president of isolating the United States on the international front.