Sharon gives Likud Gaza power
2004-03-31 20:30
Jerusalem - Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon is making the gamble of his political life by giving members of his right-wing Likud party the chance to vote down his plans for a pullback from the Gaza Strip, according to analysts.
Struggling to win a majority among his own cabinet, Sharon sprang a surprise on Tuesday when he decided to hold a referendum among rank and file party members on his controversial disengagement plan, which would see all but a handful of the Gaza settlements evacuated.
But observers have warned that the plan to go over the heads of prominent sceptics could backfire and will not necessarily get him out of trouble even if he is victorious.
Israeli analyst Dan Schueftan said the premier may see a vote among the overall Likud membership as preferable to a ballot of the more conservative central committee but is still playing with fire.
"Sharon is not happy that he is having to gamble on what Likud voters will have to say but it's better than being dependent on the central committee," he said.
Schueftan put Sharon's chances of victory at no more than 45%. A poll in Wednesday's Yediot Aharonot daily said a narrow 51% of party members backed the plan.
"It does not matter what the polls say, it's who will vote ... The hard core is better organised."
Menachem Klein, a professor in politics at Bar-Ilan University near Tel Aviv, put Sharon's chances of victory at slightly better than even, but said the premier would be holed below the water in the case of defeat.
The extreme right wing National Union (NU) and National Religious (NRP) parties have both threatened to quit Sharon's coalition if he implements the Gaza pullback but the main opposition Labour party is widely expected to step into the breach in such a scenario.
Of greater concern for Sharon is his failure to persuade Likud cabinet members, such as Foreign Minister Silvan Shalom and Finance Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, to back the project.
Netanyahu, a former prime minister, is seen as a favourite to replace Sharon if he is forced to step down either by the collapse of his masterplan or by a corruption scandal that could see him charged in weeks with accepting bribes.
Kleiman predicted that right-wing Likud ministers such as Internal Security Minister Tzahi Hanegbi and Minister Without Portfolio Uzi Landau will actively campaign against the premier in a referendum campaign. "Netanyahu will support them behind the scenes," he added.
But he said that even if Sharon secures the day, he is still no nearer winning over the Bush administration, the NU and NRP or the Palestinians.
"It will help him inside the party but it will not solve any of the wider problems."