Study: Haiti cholera to hit 800 000

2011-03-16 10:18
London - Up to 800 000 Haitians will contract cholera this year, double the estimates of UN agencies, a report published by The Lancet on Wednesday claimed.

A US team led by Jason Andrews from Harvard School of Public Health also found that a recent dip in reported cases was likely a temporary phase of the epidemic and not related to the intervention efforts.

"Although worldwide estimates of the epidemic at present are based on the assumption that the epidemic will attack four percent of the population, this assumption is essentially a guess," the report said.

Previous estimates were "based on no data" and ignored "the dynamics of cholera epidemics, such as where people acquire the infection, how they gain immunity, and the role of human interventions such as water allocation or vaccination", it added.

The findings, published in the medical journal's online edition, suggested that a combination of access to clean water, oral vaccination and increased antibiotic use could save thousands of lives.

Years to get disease under control

Researchers developed a number of mathematical models to predict the different outcomes when the three key variables were altered.

They suggested there would be 779 000 cases and 11 000 resultant deaths between March 1 and November 30 2011.

But if the three variables were applied, the models predicted 170 000 fewer cases and 3 400 fewer deaths.

"I hope that cholera will be under control in Haiti within a year," David Sack from John Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health said.

But he added: "The more realistic expectation is for endemic cholera to continue for many years..."

To prevent that, specialists needed to improve water and sanitation, case management with appropriate antibiotics, and the use of oral vaccines, he said.

More than five months after the disease broke out in Haiti's Artibonite valley, the death toll from the cholera epidemic has reached 4 672, the health ministry said last week.
- SAPA
Read more on:    cholera
NEXT ON NEWS24X
SHARE:

Read News24’s Comments Policy

24.com publishes all comments posted on articles provided that they adhere to our Comments Policy. Should you wish to report a comment for editorial review, please do so by clicking the 'Report Comment' button to the right of each comment.

Comment on this story
0 comments
Add your comment
Comment 0 characters remaining
 

Inside News24

 
/News
 

This is what South Africans Googled in 2014!

Find out who and what South Africans were most curious about in 2014!

 
 

I love summer.24

This hilarious song is your new holiday anthem
The world's least visited destination is breathtaking!
LOL treadmill fail!
Google’s top searches of 2014

Jobs in Cape Town [change area]

Property [change area]

Travel - Look, Book, Go!

Kalahari.com - shop online today

2DAYS ONLY – 30% off Appliances

Coffee makers, blenders, fans, juicers and more. T&Cs apply. Shop now!

2 DAYS ONLY – 40% off books

Get 40% off when you buy 2 books. For two days only! T&Cs apply. Buy now!

Up to 50% off on outdoor gear

Save on chairs, blankets, cooler bags, umbrellas and more. Shop now!

Save on Samsung

Cameras, mobile phones, TVs, Tablets and more. While stocks last. Shop now!

Grand Theft Auto 5

Now available on PS4, Xbox One and PC from R649. Buy now!

OLX Free Classifieds [change area]

Samsung Galaxy s4

Mobile, Cell Phones in South Africa, Western Cape, Cape Town. Date October 24

Best bargain in big bay

Real Estate, Houses - Apartments for Sale in South Africa, Western Cape, Cape Town. Date October 25

VW Golf 6, 1.6 Trendline (Excellent condition)

Vehicles, Cars in South Africa, Western Cape, Cape Town. Date October 25

Horoscopes
Aquarius
Aquarius

Any chance to explore the distant shores of things yet to be found will fascinate you. The challenge is dealing with the issues...read more

There are new stories on the homepage. Click here to see them.
 
English
Afrikaans
isiZulu

Hello 

Create Profile

Creating your profile will enable you to submit photos and stories to get published on News24.


Please provide a username for your profile page:

This username must be unique, cannot be edited and will be used in the URL to your profile page across the entire 24.com network.

Settings

Location Settings

News24 allows you to edit the display of certain components based on a location. If you wish to personalise the page based on your preferences, please select a location for each component and click "Submit" in order for the changes to take affect.








Facebook Sign-In

Hi News addict,

Join the News24 Community to be involved in breaking the news.

Log in with Facebook to comment and personalise news, weather and listings.