Why is Osama so quiet?
2005-11-05 12:12
Washington - Osama bin Laden has been publicly silent for the longest period since the attacks of September 11 2001. The question for United States intelligence: What, if anything, does it mean?
The terror leader with the $25m bounty on his head issued two audio statements in December, the last known public word.
He was last seen in a videotaped message to Americans on October 29 2004, saying the United States could avoid another September 11 attack if it stopped threatening the security of Muslims.
"Any state that does not mess with our security has naturally guaranteed its own security," bin Laden said in a translation of an address aired on Al-Jazeera, the Qatar-based television channel, discussing the 2004 presidential elections.
Since the 9/11 attacks, the longest bin Laden had gone without issuing a new audio or video public statement was just over nine months. He's now let 10 months pass, and counting.
No evidence he's dead
Two US counterterror officials, speaking on condition of anonymity because of the subject's sensitivity, say there is no evidence to suggest he is dead. The working assumption is that bin Laden is alive, even if he isn't churning out tapes.
Ben Venzke, chief executive at the IntelCenter, a government contractor that does support work for intelligence agencies, said terrorism analysts are paying attention.
"This is the first time things have changed in years. Messages have generally come in a consistent pattern, and now they are not," Venzke said. "It is likely that these changes in messaging by al-Qaida are the result of planning and a PR strategy, as opposed to their computer broke."
He noted it also was the first October since 2002 that bin Laden had not delivered a message addressed specifically to Americans.
The terror leader is believed hiding in a rugged area along the Afghan-Pakistani border, where the government in Islamabad has little control and tribal loyalties run deep.
Venzke notes there could be a number of factors contributing to bin Laden's public silence. He may have decided to change the messenger. His deputy, Ayman al-Zawahri, has been much more vocal, issuing seven messages this year. In years past, he and bin Laden have delivered roughly the same numbers of messages.
Or the earthquake in Pakistan could have inhibited bin Laden's ability to transmit messages. Or a tape could have been destroyed in the rubble. Yet al-Zawahri has managed to send out a message since the earthquake, asking Muslims to provide aid.
Could be plotting
Bin Laden also could be plotting an attack on the United States and has made a strategic messaging decision to keep quiet in the lead-up to the attack, Venzke said.
In a recent interview, the head of the National Counterterrorism Centre, retired vice-admiral Scott Redd, said bin Laden can't communicate with his followers the way he had in the past.
"The more you communicate, the more you try to directly run an organisation, the more vulnerable you are," Redd said. "And he is pretty deep in hiding. We know he is not communicating very much."
President George W Bush rarely mentions bin Laden, who has eluded US capture despite being the most-sought terrorist in the world. Bush mentioned him by name in a series of speeches focused on the war on terror last month.
"Al-Qaida's leader, Osama bin Laden, has called on Muslims to dedicate their `resources, sons and money to driving the infidels out of their lands,"' Bush said in a speech in Virginia on October 28. "The tactics of al-Qaeda and other Islamic extremists have been consistent for a quarter-century: They hit us, and they expect us to run."
Public confidence in Bush's handling of foreign policy and terrorism has steadily dropped since a high point after the September 11 attacks. In the most recent AP-Ipsos polling, 46% approved of his handling of those issues.
Half the Americans think it's likely that the United States will capture or kill bin Laden, a number that has moved little over the last three years, according to a CNN-USA Today-Gallup poll.
- AP