Clinton's last stand?
2008-04-18 13:39
Washington - It has been a long, tiring and bitter six weeks of campaigning. But Pennsylvania's time has finally arrived.
The eastern US state's diverse mix of voters, who have received
unprecedented attention due to the protracted nomination battle between
Democratic presidential hopefuls Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton, will
have their say on Tuesday.
For Clinton, Pennsylvania is the largest state left in a string of
must-win contests, if she is to have any chance of receiving the
Democratic Party's nod to run in the November general election.
For Obama, who maintains a small but solid lead in the all-important
delegate count with only eight state primaries to go, a win in
Pennsylvania would almost certainly provide the knock-out blow he has
long sought.
Clinton has the edge
That is unlikely. Opinion polls have consistently given Clinton the
edge ever since campaigning in the state got underway, after the last
primary elections on March 4 in Texas and Ohio.
But Clinton's lead has narrowed - from as much as 20 points last
month to an average of six percentage points in the final week, according
to an average of state-wide polls compiled by realclearpolitics.com.
But while victories for Clinton in Ohio and Texas breathed new life
into her sagging campaign, pundits say she will need a decisive win in
Pennsylvania to keep that momentum going.
The reason lies in the ever-fewer remaining delegates up for grabs
to the party's nominating convention in August. A total of 2 024 are
needed to win, and only about 850 are left unpledged.
Obama holds a lead over Clinton of 164 from delegates awarded in the
more than 40 state contests already held since early January. He leads
by 140 when including super-delegates - party activists, politicians
and statesmen that can endorse whichever candidate they choose.
In Pennsylvania, 188 of those delegates are at stake. But because
the delegates are awarded proportionally, even a 20-percentage-point
victory by Clinton would close the gap with Obama by less than 40.
Increasingly bitter contest
Obama, Clinton and their surrogates have crisscrossed the state in
the last six weeks in an increasingly bitter contest that has left some
Democratic leaders worried of a split within the party which may be
difficult to close.
The word "bitter" took on a new relevance last week on the campaign
trail. Obama used it to characterise small-town Americans who he
claimed had resorted to religion and guns out of disenchantment with
politics and despair over their economic situation.
Clinton and presumptive Republican nominee John McCain seized on the
comments as "elitist" and "out of touch," and Obama has since
apologised if the remarks caused offence.
For Obama, Pennsylvania is also the first electoral test since a
controversy erupted over the racially incendiary remarks of his former
pastor and spiritual advisor, Reverend Jeremiah Wright jnr, who among
other things in church sermons suggested the US had brought on itself
the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001.
Obama, who is vying to become the first African American president,
has called Wright's comments "extremely offensive" and sought to allay
the concerns in a broad speech on the state of race relations last
month in Philadelphia.
Pennsylvania closely divided
Pennsylvania, with 14.2 million people, is the sixth largest US
state and closely divided between Democrats and Republicans.
With primary victories for Clinton so far in California, Texas,
Ohio, Massachusetts and New York, the former first lady hopes a win in
Pennsylvania will fuel her argument that she has the big-state support
needed in the November general election.
Clinton will be relying on the votes of blue-collar workers that
helped her win neighbouring Ohio and are concentrated in the state's
central and western regions around the city of Pittsburgh.
Much of Obama's vote will likely come from the east in and around
the state's largest city of Philadelphia - a large community of African
Americans and urban professionals.
Meanwhile McCain, who wrapped up the Republican nomination in early
March, has spent the last six weeks raising money for his general
election campaign, travelling to the Middle East and Europe and laying
out the broad strokes of his foreign and economic policy.
With McCain waiting in the wings, Democratic National Committee
chairperson Howard Dean has said his party must have a nominee by the end
of June at the latest.
Barring a knock-out blow in Pennsylvania, the Obama-Clinton battle
will continue to North Carolina and Indiana on May 6. - Sapa-dpa
- SAPA