Obama's election to lose
2008-06-10 14:09
Washington - A tanking US economy, an unpopular war, record petrol prices, an unpopular Republican president - it all adds up to a victory for Democrat Barack Obama in November, right?
Or, from Republican John McCain's standpoint, are Americans
ready to turn over the White House to an untested, first-term
senator in a time of war and facing big challenges at home and
abroad?
Political analysts believe Democrats have their best chance
in years to take the White House from Republicans, saying a
whole host of factors favour Obama over McCain.
"It's their election to lose," said Linda Fowler, a
political science professor at Dartmouth College in New
Hampshire.
Independent voters
But Republicans think they have the stronger candidate in
the war hero McCain and that with some luck and by attracting
independent voters, they might just be able to beat the odds
and put him in the White House.
"He wins by making a positive, solution-oriented appeal to
the country that appeals particularly to independents as well
as Republicans," said Republican pollster Whit Ayres.
Obama, who would be America's first black president, enters
the general election battle as the favourite among voters who
have been evenly divided in the last two presidential
elections.
Polls gave him an edge over McCain before he clinched the
Democratic presidential nomination, and McCain aides
believe he will get a bounce from his victory.
Obama's weaknesses
But Obama has some weak areas that Republicans will try to
exploit. Clinton's defeat of Obama in such states as Ohio,
Pennsylvania and West Virginia showed that Obama has some work
to do to convince white, working-class voters they should vote
for him.
His campaign remark that small-town Americans are "bitter"
and "cling" to guns and religion, as well as his association
with the Rev Jeremiah Wright, known for racially charged
sermons, may count against him, although Obama moved to rectify
that liability by resigning from Wright's church.
"The bottom line is that Obama has the wind at his back,"
said Democratic strategist Liz Chadderdon. "But he must begin
to reflect the values of the general consensus of America. He
still has to connect. He can't have any more bitter comments,
he can't have any more elitist comments."
Democrats believe Obama will win by taking the states won by
Democratic candidate John Kerry in 2004 and seizing some of the
battleground states that are typically in play, like Ohio or
Florida, that Democrats did not win four years ago.
McCain the best candidate possible
Many Republicans are queasy about the prospect of losing
more congressional seats - after losing control of the US
Congress in 2006 - because in three special elections to fill
Republican seats this year, the Democrat has won.
Political experts believe Republicans ended up with the
best candidate possible because McCain has a more centrist
record and has shown an ability to reach across the aisle to
work with Democrats.
But success for McCain, a backer of current US strategy
in Iraq, could depend on factors out of his control - whether
the Iraq war is off the front pages, and whether Americans
improve their view of President George W Bush, whose approval
rating is around 30%.
To win in November, "McCain is going to need a great deal
of luck coming from many different directions," said Larry
Sabato, a political science professor at the University of
Virginia.
"He needs Iraq to stay quiet, the economy to improve, and
Bush to at least get over 40% in the public polls," said
Sabato. "That's tough."
Republican strategist Scott Reed said McCain, by talking up
issues important to independents like global warming, is off to
a good start and that Republican congressional candidates
should pay attention to him.
"Republicans can and will win in November by grabbing on to
McCain and his reform agenda. Anything short of a bold,
forward-looking agenda is going to come up short, because the
political environment stinks," he said.
- Reuters