Faint Super 14 hope for SA
2006-05-07 21:32
Pretoria - Everything is not yet lost, but everything will have to go the way of the Sharks and the Bulls in the final weekend of the Super 14 league phase for South Africa to have a team in the semi-finals.
A prerequisite is that the Crusaders thrash the Brumbies.
It is the Sharks, and not the Bulls, who have the best chance of the South African teams to claim fourth place on the log.
It does not, however, just depend on their own performance.
Apart from getting a full house against Western Force in Durban on Friday evening, the Sharks must hope the Crusaders beat the Brumbies by a big margin in Christchurch earlier on Friday.
The Sharks should get five bonus points against the Force, but it will not help them at all if the Brumbies get a bonus point against the Crusaders.
But, even if both teams finish on 38 points the Brumbies have a superior points difference.
After 12 matches the Brumbies (87) have a better points difference than the Sharks (48).
The Brumbies play in the first match of the final league weekend, which could be good or bad for the Sharks.
Difficult permutations
If the Brumbies get a bonus point, the Sharks are out of the semis.
If the ACT team do not get a bonus point, the Sharks will know exactly by how many points they must beat the Force to eliminate the Brumbies, but they must also hope that the Bulls do not scramble their plans the next day at Newlands.
The Bulls semi-finals permutations are even more difficult. They will, like the Sharks, hope the Crusaders win by a convincing margin. That is the first hurdle.
To get over the second, the Bulls must depend on the Western Force not conceding four tries against the Sharks.
The final hurdle awaits them at Newlands, where the Bulls must get a full house against the Stormers.
Even if the Bulls jump all three hurdles successfully, they are still behind the Sharks when the points difference with the Brumbies is taken into account.
Where the points difference of the Sharks is 87-48 compared to the Brumbies, the Bulls difference is worse (87-32).
If the Bulls are beaten by the Stormers, they run the risk of ending seventh on the log, depending on the outcome of the match between the Blues and the Chiefs in Auckland.
The Crusaders can not be robbed of a home semi-final after getting a full house against the Bulls at Loftus Versfeld.
Their 47 league points can be overtaken only by the Waratahs, second with 44 points, or the Hurricanes, third with 43, but these two teams play each other in Sydney.
George Gregan cited
Of the four top teams still in the running, the Brumbies, fourth on 38, will have the most sleepless nights.
Their defeat against the Highlanders on Saturday - the first this season in Canberra - will not make it easier for them to beat the Crusaders in front of their home supporters.
And, on top of that, one of the Brumbies key players, George Gregan (scrumhalf), has been cited for a dangerous tackle on a Highlanders player.