SA semi still quite possible
2008-05-12 08:40
Gavin Rich
Cape Town - Don't write off the possibility of a South African semi-final in the Super 14, and it is still entirely possible that it could even be between two local teams.
What was evident after Saturday's draw in the final match of the penultimate round of the league stage of competition at Newlands was that no-one had really factored a draw into the equation when they looked at the various permutations before the weekend.
Stormers captain Jean de Villiers said in the post-match interview that he wasn't sure where the draw left his team, and that it was like a loss. And down in Durban members of the Sharks management were considering it the worst possible result for their own quest for a top four place.
However, none of this is true. The stakes may be higher now, and there is more to lose, but the fact the Waratahs did not win in the wet at Newlands means that the Sharks, although fifth on the log going into the final round, can still achieve their initial objective of booking a home semi-final.
It might seem a long shot, but then is it really? This past weekend saw interesting form from the teams that the teams currently second and third on the log, the Hurricanes and the Waratahs, play in their last matches.
The Hurricanes play the resurgent Blues in Auckland, while the Waratahs have to fly home from South Africa following their bruising game against the Stormers and face arch-rivals the Reds in Brisbane.
Realms of possibility
This is a match the Reds have been building up to all season, and they won't make it easy for the Waratahs, particularly after they themselves came so close to upsetting the Crusaders this past weekend.
So it is not beyond the realms of possibility that both the Waratahs and the Hurricanes lose this weekend and, if they do, both the Stormers and the Sharks stand to advance past them on the log if they win.
In the case of the Hurricanes, they will just have to hope that the Wellington team are (a) denied a bonus point, or (b) they themselves pick up bonus points against the Lions and Chiefs respectively.
What helps the Stormers and Sharks is the order of play next weekend, with the Blues/Hurricanes game taking place early on Friday South African time, and the Waratahs/Reds clash mid-morning on Saturday.
The Stormers play the Lions in Johannesburg at 15:00 on Saturday afternoon, with the Sharks due to play the last league match of 2008 at 19:10.
Of the pair, it would appear the Sharks have the easier passage, but then it must not be forgotten that the Stormers have a nine point advantage at present in points differential.
So, if for instance the Stormers win by ten against the Lions, and pick up a bonus point, it will leave the Sharks needing to score four tries and win by 19 - not the easiest target to go in with against a strong team like the Chiefs.
Points difference
The Sharks certainly looked on Saturday to be re-installed as the form team of the South African sides, with the Stormers' high tackle count in every game they have played recently possibly starting to haunt them in these late stages of the competition. They were magnificent on defence in the second half against the Waratahs, but by the end they were looking distinctly fatigued.
The Sharks, by contrast, showed their ticker by finishing with a flourish against the Cheetahs, and if they do sneak past the Stormers on points difference, the two tries scored by Odwa Ndungane in the last two minutes could be the most significant of the entire competition.
The Sharks showed against the Crusaders last week that they could well have the beating of the log leaders, even in Christchurch, and they are equipped to go all the way in the competition if they get through and continue with the momentum picked up at the last against the Cheetahs.
There were some good games this past weekend, but the big one of the weekend at Newlands was undeniably the best of them considering the conditions. It was as wet a day as you could imagine, with a cold swirling wind driving steady rain onto the pitch, and yet both teams took turns, the Waratahs definitely more so, to show that a wet ball needn't necessarily mean you can't run it.
The Stormers' first try to Sireli Naqelevuki was outstanding in the conditions, and the Waratahs' score to Lote Tuqiri was no less so. In the second half the Waratahs exhibited almost unbelievable skill in running the ball in the wet, and the Stormers' strategy of kicking the ball onto them in the hope that they would make a mistake nearly backfired.
As it was though, the Stormers were within 12 minutes of a win that would have propelled them into third position on the log before a Tony Brown fumble allowed the Waratahs to take up the field position which eventually saw them put Tuqiri over for his try, with Kurtley Beale levelling the scores with an excellent conversion.
Had the Stormers won though the bottom line for this week would have remained the same - they would still have to beat the Lions, just as the Waratahs and the Hurricans, and for that matter the Sharks, the Blues and the Chiefs, all have to win their matches. It all adds up to an absorbing and intriguing final round.
WEEKEND RESULTS
Hurricanes 21 Western Force 10
Bulls 28 Brumbies 17
Highlanders 15 Blues 40
Reds 21 Crusaders 27
Sharks 33 Cheetahs 27
Lions 33 Chiefs 27
Stormers 13 Waratahs 13