Boks have the edge - on paper
2008-07-04 14:48
Gavin Rich
The term "it is now or never" may be a bit of a sports-writing cliché, but it may nonetheless be applicable to the Springboks as they tackle New Zealand in their first Vodacom Tri-Nations match of 2008 in Wellington.
Nick Mallett has called it the championship of the world, and make no mistake, the All Blacks, who were impressive in their second Test demolition of England two weeks ago, will be an angry and determined team.
They are always dangerous at home, even more so when they face a team that talks as if it might have a good chance - and the myriad factors counting against them, such as the drinking controversies involving Jimmy Cowan and Jerome Keino, might actually count in their favour.
This is the first time since that awful night in Cardiff last October that the All Blacks get an opportunity to make up for the enormous slight on New Zealand sporting pride that their early exit from the World Cup was.
They say that New Zealand reign the world but for every fourth year, when the World Cup comes around, so this could be the beginning of another extended reign for the Kiwis.
But there is a lot that should favour the Boks this time, and it is certainly not pushing it to suggest that this is a match that the South Africans should expect to win - or put another way, if they don't win this one, when will they ever win again on Kiwi soil? Apart from the departure of stalwarts for overseas since the World Cup, injury has created serious flaws in the All Black team, such as Rodney So'oialo playing at openside flank.
Good defender
At least everything would appear to be favouring South Africa were it not for the few questionable selections that new coach Peter de Villiers has come up with for his first really big litmus test.
Adrian Jacobs included in a midfield when you have the talented World Cup-winner Frans Steyn available doesn't make sense. He may stand up in a one-off, but if Jacobs was to suddenly become a consistently good defender at international level and a performer in tight games, then it would defy everything that he has done in his career so far.
If he was a consistent player, why has he spent most of his career with the Sharks on the bench. He disappeared in the recent Super 14 semi-final, when he did start against the Waratahs. The Welsh didn't really play on him, but the All Blacks, provided the conditions are not too inclement, probably will.
There are also those who will question why De Villiers has gone for Conrad Jantjes and Odwa Ndungane ahead of more experienced men in the back three, while the Kiwis are probably wondering why De Villiers opted to leave behind South Africa's best tighthead, BJ Botha. South Africa definitely has the players to beat the All Blacks, but the players don't select the team.
However, those question marks aside, De Villiers has done a much better job of selecting the team for this match than we thought he might a month back, when he selected a team of new combinations for the first test against Wales.
At least the new coach has had the common sense to select a pack made up of combinations that, if not all part of the World Cup-winning effort, have certainly played plenty of rugby together at this level before.
Breakdown skills
The only odd man out when it comes to World Cup representation is Joe van Niekerk, but then Big Joe has 47 Test caps, he has played in New Zealand before, he has beaten the All Blacks on a couple of occasions in South Africa.
He is 100% correct when he says that Jake White messed his career around when he played him at No 6 when Schalk Burger was injured. That said, Van Niekerk has better breakdown skills than the other specialist No 8s in the squad, and that justifies his selection.
With Van Niekerk in the backrow the are two players who must be close to being the best in their position in world rugby. Indeed, with Richie McCaw absent from the opposition team, there is probably no disputing that Schalk Burger will be the best opensider in world rugby playing this weekend. Juan Smith is simply an outstanding rugby player.
The halfbacks picked themselves, with the matured Butch James set to play a massive role if it is wet. If it is wet, it will be a great pity that Fourie du Preez is not present, as his tactical brain and his kicking boot would make him the perfect wet weather scrumhalf. The Bulls No 9 is the man the Boks are missing the most in 2008 - and that is no disrespect to Ricky Januarie, who is back to his best form.
Absent
If you look at the teams on paper, the Boks have the edge in combinations at lock and at loose-forward. Where they could be in trouble is the scrums, and the All Blacks will definitely target them here. Of course, a backward step here impacts on everything else, and will give Dan Carter a better chance of dictating terms from flyhalf.
Ultimately, that will be the key for the Boks - they need to cut down Carter, and if they do, then the fact they have Burger back and the All Blacks have McCaw absent could decide this Test in favour of South Africa.
But it will require a strong leadership role from John Smit and the other leading players, and anything other than a tight approach, with James's boot playing a prominent role allied to aggressive defence and emphasis on exploiting turn-over ball, will be suicide for South Africa.
Teams
New Zealand: Mils Muliaina, Sitiveni Sivivatu, Conrad Smith, Ma'a Nonu, Rudi Wulf, Dan Carter, Andy Ellis, Jerome Kaino, Rodney So'oialo (captain), Adam Thomson, Ali Williams, Brad Thorn, Greg Somerville, Andrew Hore, Tony Woodcock.
Reserves: Keven Mealamu, Neemia Tialata, Anthony Boric, Sione Lauaki, Jimmy Cowan, Stephen Donald, Leon MacDonald.
South Africa: Conrad Jantjes, Odwa Ndungane, Adrian Jacobs, Jean de Villiers, Bryan Habana, Butch James, Ricky Januarie, Joe van Niekerk, Juan Smith, Schalk Burger, Victor Matfield, Bakkies Botha, CJ van der Linde, John Smit (captain), Gurthro Steenkamp.
Reserves: Bismarck du Plessis, Brian Mujati, Andries Bekker, Luke Watson, Bolla Conradie, Frans Steyn, Percy Montgomery.
Referee: Stuart Dickinson.
Kick-off: 09:35
Prediction: It's a lottery, but back the Boks by the narrowest of margins.