ANALYSIS: Mbete's big moment - will she pass the test?

2017-08-07 11:13
Baleka Mbete, Speaker of the National Assembly

Baleka Mbete, Speaker of the National Assembly

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The vote of no confidence is Mbete's big moment, but will she pass the test? - Melanie Verwoerd

This is Mbete’s big moment – not only in terms of what could potentially happen on the day, but also because of the precedent it sets for the future. The stakes are high, not only for the country, but also for her. Mbete announced recently that she will stand for the position of president of the ANC and thus, also of the country in 2019.

It is therefore clear that Mbete will only allow a secret ballot if she is convinced that there will not be a large scale defiance of the NEC instruction by ANC MPs and that the motion will be defeated, even with a secret ballot.

So what are the chances of the motion passing in the case of a secret ballot? I have no doubt that if the vote had taken place shortly after the Cabinet reshuffle in March, a large percentage of ANC MPs would have voted with the opposition and the motion would most likely have passed, thus getting rid of President Zuma.

However, the mood in Parliament has changed in the last four months. Those against Zuma seem to have battle fatigue. An increasing number of them also argue that, despite their conviction that Zuma should go, if it is achieved via such a motion, it will tear the party apart. Given that December is so close, they feel that it is better to wait till then, writes Melanie Verwoerd.

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MPs can't punish Zuma without hurting the ANC - Ralph Mathekga

It would be very difficult for ANC MPs to punish Zuma without punishing the ANC as well.

While ANC MPs have protected Zuma all along, this time they are saying that voting against the motion of no confidence does not necessarily mean that they support him, it only means that they do not want to hurt the ANC. 

Thus, the ANC MPs are going to do the same thing they have always done in Parliament when confronted with the opposition led motion of no confidence in Zuma; however they will be doing it for a different reason this time; to protect the ANC or whatever is left of the party.

This is a very naive move, says Ralph Mathekga.

Read more

SA will be better off if the vote to oust Zuma proves to be a damp squib - Steven Friedman

Julius Malema claims enough ANC legislators support the motion to assure a majority. While others don’t go that far, they hint that it could succeed. But there is a catch: the motion will only pass, they say, if representatives can vote in secret, which needs the help of the courts.

What they want Parliament – and the courts – to do would damage South African democracy. But, they insist, so important is the no confidence vote that it’s worth bending the rules - once only – to win it.

This ignores reality. Democracies are shaped by precedent - “once off” exceptions usually become part of the political furniture. And so it is good news for democracy that they won’t get what they want – the “make or break” no confidence vote is likely to be a damp squib and this means that the assaults on democracy which accompany it probably will not happen, writes Steven Friedman.

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Make us all walk tall - Pregs Govender

Dear ANC,

The legacy you carry as ANC MPs is powerful.

The ANC, alongside other liberation movements such as the Black Consciousness Movement and the Pan Africanist Congress, ensured the end of apartheid.

This crime against humanity was built on a foundation of military conquest, colonial dispossession, racism, sexism, and slave, indentured and exploited labour.

The people will support you when you value our country, the Constitution, the people and the legacy of our ancestors.

We trust you to act with love, courage and, yes, insubordination to those who ask you to be silent when the history of an entire movement is subsumed by one individual who destroys that legacy with countless cases of corruption, writes Pregs Govender.

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President Jacob Zuma appears to doze off during a sitting of the National Assembly. (Picture: Jan Gerber)

How will you vote, Lindiwe Sisulu? - Ghaleb Cachaila

We were both born in the mid-1950s. Our parents were firm friends and comrades.

How things have changed.

I have witnessed the complete collapse of institutions in democratic South Africa.

I have seen the people who entrusted our generation with the responsibility to lead, experience a failing education and health system.

How will you vote?

Will you honour the memory of your parents and the legacy they have left behind?

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Secret ballot: Mantashe's decree is unlawful - Mpumelelo Mkhabela

Gwede Mantashe, standing on an elevated platform at Luthuli House, supposedly higher than God’s sacred Kingdom, decreed that the human beings made in God’s image have no conscience to speak of. 

He was insulting ANC members of Parliament whose conscience dictates to them they need to kick Jacob Zuma, the highly compromised and divisive president, out of office on August 8. 

He is entitled to speak for himself if he lacks conscience. But he shouldn’t speak for elected public representatives who as individuals publicly swore allegiance to the Constitution of the Republic.

Mantashe’s conscience – or lack of it – aside, the constitutional crisis South Africa is facing is partly as a result of the manufactured tension between the political party system and the Constitution, writes Mpumelelo Mkhabela.

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Editorial: Why MPs must vote Zuma out

ANC Chief Whip Jackson Mthembu said on Friday that Zuma’s removal would be “tantamount to throwing a nuclear bomb on the government of South Africa”; “plunge our country into complete political instability and economic uncertainty”; and “bring our country to the brink of collapse”.

We disagree.

We believe that Zuma’s immediate orderly and constitutional removal would be in the best interest of the republic.

Read more.

Read more on:    jacob zuma  |  baleka mbete  |  no confidence vote  |  parliament  |  anc leadership race  |  anc

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