Analysis  >  Friday Briefing: The race for Gauteng

Friday Briefing cover


The race that will decide the election

There are many markers in our upcoming sixth general election that South Africans will be watching closely.

Will the ANC's traditional supporters in townships turn up in greater numbers than in 2014 and 2016? What will black voters tell the DA: yea or nay? And will the EFF be able to overcome the challenge of low registration numbers among young people?

They will all be fascinating to watch, but by far the most important marker is going to be Gauteng, the country's richest and most populous province. It will be the grand prize and the ANC, DA and EFF are doing all they can to convince the electorate why it should be the biggest formation in the province. The ANC have had a torrid time of it lately: in 2014 its provincial support fell by almost 10% and in 2016 it lost control of two metropolitan municipalities: Tshwane and Johannesburg.

In our penultimate Friday Briefing before South Africa goes to the polls on May 8, News24's election analyst Dawie Scholtz takes an in-depth look at Gauteng, and identifies the five townships that may swing the vote. Scholtz, one of the country's foremost election number crunchers, has built a state-of-the-art projection model that will enable News24 to make quick and accurate projections on who is winning, where and why. Look out for our coverage from polling day onwards!

Pieter du Toit

Assistant Editor: In-Depth News


Johannesburg cityscape, taken at sunset, showing H

Dawie Scholtz

The Gauteng provincial election is going to be close. Very close. Although there's no doubt that the ANC will be the largest party in Gauteng, the key question is just whether the party will reach 50%. The ANC weakened severely over the last three elections and the EFF and DA are picking up support. This is the critical trend to watch on May 8.

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Johannesburg cityscape, taken at sunset, showing H



Life in Gauteng is improving – but big challenges remain

Julia de Kadt, Alexandra Parker and Christina Culwick

More than 14 million people live in South Africa’s economic hub, the Gauteng City-Region. That's 25% of the country's population. While life appears to be improving for many people, it seems it is most rapidly doing so for the more advantaged members of society. This has an impact on quality of live and social cohesion in the region.

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