Adriaan Basson

Editor's notes: 5 things a NDZ victory will say about the ANC

2017-12-18 09:11
ANC presidential hopeful Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma. (Gallo Images)

ANC presidential hopeful Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma. (Gallo Images)

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WATCH: Why the numbers favour Ramaphosa

2017-12-17 21:13

News24 Editor Adriaan Basson explains why the numbers suggest that a Cyril Ramaphosa win is the likely outcome of the ANC's elective conference. Watch.WATCH

The ANC will announce its new leader on Monday. What will a Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma victory mean for the party and the country?

1. Branches don’t really matter, it’s the delegates who decide

If NDZ emerges victorious, it means that the will of the majority of ANC branches were overruled by delegates representing these branches at conference. If delegates voted as their branches who sent them to Nasrec did, Cyril Ramaphosa would win the race (even if all Mpumalanga’s “unity” delegates voted for Dlamini-Zuma).

2. Jacob Zuma is going nowhere

It is unlikely that Zuma will vacate his office if the mother of three of his children succeeds him as ANC president. Although Zuma has tried in recent days to create distance between himself and Dlamini-Zuma’s campaign, his fate is intrinsically linked to her fortunes.

3. The Guptas and Duduzane are safe – for now

Dlamini-Zuma has done nothing to distance herself from the Guptas and Duduzane Zuma, who are the original creators of her radical economic transformation (RET) campaign, as defined by the now defunct British PR firm Bell Pottinger. It is very unlikely that she will allow criminal proceedings or support a judicial commission of inquiry that may send them to jail.

4. The ANC’s electoral decline will continue

The ANC’s scourges, as succinctly outlined by Jacob Zuma during his final political report, are unlikely to disappear if Dlamini-Zuma is unwilling to take a hard-line stance on corruption and state capture. The ANC’s inaction against large-scale looting of the fiscus has contributed directly to the party’s losses during the 2016 local government election; a trend that will continue in 2019 if Dlamini-Zuma isn’t willing to take on her own supporters.  

5. A coalition government could dethrone the ANC in 2019

Numerous leaders of the Ramaphosa camp have stated on and off the record that they will not continue serving under a Dlamini-Zuma presidency. It is unlikely that the ANC will see a 50/50 split, but there may very well be a strong breakaway group, reminiscent of the formation of Cope after Thabo Mbeki was recalled as party president. Such a party could take the ANC’s support to under 50% and make the prospect of a DA-EFF-Cope2 coalition a reality. 

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