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Robert J. Traydon
Below are three 'relatively unreported', yet noteworthy statements
made in the latter half of 2017 - and you're not going to believe who made
1. "So, I'd like to de-nuke the world. I would
like Russia and the United States, China and Pakistan, and many other countries
that have nuclear weapons, (to) get rid of them";
2. "The DPRK (North Korea) consistently
supports the total elimination of nuclear weapons and the efforts for denuclearization
of the entire world"; and
3. "If you ask me whether nuclear
disarmament is possible or not, I would say, yes, it is possible.
Does Russia want universal nuclear disarmament or not? The answer is
also yes – yes, Russia wants that and will work for it."
statement was made by US President Donald Trump on August 10, 2017; the second
statement by North Korea's deputy UN ambassador, Kim In Ryong on October 16;
and the third
statement by Russian President Vladimir Putin on October 19.
With these three statements in mind, one wonders how the
following can be possible: "US
ready to put 'nuclear bombers on 24-hour alert' for the first time since the
end of the Cold War amid growing tensions with Russia and North Korea"
– published by the Daily
Mail on October 23, 2017.
It's a precarious case of, 'even though none of us wants nuclear
weapons … we're all forced to possess them and will use them if necessary'. But,
in light of the three statements above, surely there's a feasible solution
hiding in plain sight.
To identify this potential solution, one has to recognise
the origin of the problem. And to do this, we need to examine the context in
which each of these three 'denuclearisation' statements was made:
1. Donald Trump said that, despite his wish for a
nuke-free world, as long as the 'scourge' of nukes existed, America's nuclear
arsenal would be the 'biggest and finest' in the world.
2. Kim In Ryong stated that for as long as nuclear
states continued to accelerate and modernise their nuclear arsenals, the DPRK would
be forced to continue with its nuclear weapons and ballistic rockets programs.
He went on to say that for as long as the US rejected the Treaty for the Prohibition
of Nuclear Weapons, the DPRK would be compelled to also reject the treaty.
3. Vladimir Putin affirmed that for as long as the US
contravened and/or threatened to quit the 1987 Intermediate-range Nuclear
Forces Treaty, Russia would remain ready to respond immediately and
symmetrically to ensure parity in terms of nuclear missile capabilities.
From the context above, it's obvious that neither Trump, nor
Kim, nor Putin is courageous enough to make the first decisive move towards denuclearising
the world, hence the dangerous deadlock.
Enter, 'The Donald' … the man who apparently perfected 'the art
of the deal'. (Trump's book 'The art of the deal' published in 1987, should
have included a subtitle – 'My way or highway')
President Trump has been referred to recently as a maniac, a
dotard and a moron, and let's face it, with good reason. He has proven himself
to be a maverick, letting his personal views and vendettas get in the way of him
being a legendary 'deal-making' president.
But, if Trump the dealmaker could solve the seemingly
insurmountable nuclear threat of both North Korea and Russia by peaceful means,
it would deem him worthy of a sculpture on Mount Rushmore.
Although the word 'concession' doesn't exist in Trump's
vocabulary, it is one that he's going to have to learn fast – especially when
it comes to ballistic missiles and hydrogen bombs.
Not once in Trump's dealings with North Korea and Russia,
has he or any of his senior military advisors/officials alluded to a strategy
of 'mutually agreed denuclearisation'.
The fact that Trump, Kim, and Putin have all expressed and/or
made official their support of denuclearisation, would suggest that it constitutes
one of the most viable options deserving of immediate consideration.
Of course, this would require Trump to take the bold step of
'backing down' and committing the US to a phased denuclearisation program in
tandem with Russia and North Korea (and potentially Britain, France, China, India,
Pakistan and Israel) – with the ultimate goal being that all these nuclear nations
ratify the UN's Treaty for the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons at some mutually
agreed point in the future.
And since Trump places such enormous emphasis on 'living
up to the spirit of a deal', he must feel especially compelled to live up
to the spirit of Article VI in the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear
which states that, 'Each of the Parties to the Treaty undertakes to pursue
negotiations in good faith on effective measures relating to cessation of the
nuclear arms race at an early date and to nuclear disarmament, and on a treaty
on general and complete disarmament.'
This couldn't be spelled out any clearer for the US and
other nuclear nations bound by the NPT. As it stands, these nuclear nations are
all currently in contravention of Article VI, and have shown no interest in complying
with it even though they place so much emphasis on the NPT.
Trump referred to nuclear weapons as a "scourge". To many it's
an environmental scourge, to others it's a humanitarian scourge… but to some,
including Trump, it's a fiscal scourge.
The cost of modernising the current US nuclear arsenal,
including operating costs, life extension programs for nuclear weapons and
procurement of new delivery systems to replace aging elements of the strategic
triad, is estimated at US$1 trillion over the next 30 years – equivalent to 78
Ford-class nuclear-powered aircraft carriers or 45 Three Gorges Dam projects.
Trump must balk at this number, as must Putin at his own respective
costs… not to mention Kim, whose finances are being squeezed by a raft of
sanctions. Every leader of a nuclear state must know that the money allocated
to their nuclear arsenal could be far better spent improving their national
fiscus and, in turn, the livelihoods of their citizens.
Closing the deal on
No doubt, this would be an unprecedented move by President Trump.
But, the truth is, the world needs a maverick like Trump to lead the way and pull
off this 'mutually agreed denuclearisation of nuclear states'. The world would forever
revere him for being the maestro who 'closed the deal on denuclearisation' and
saved the world from apocalyptic nuclear war.
This is Trump's opportunity to immortalise his presidential
legacy amongst the greatest US Presidents that ever lived … George Washington,
Thomas Jefferson, Theodore Roosevelt and Abraham Lincoln.
Come on, Donald, the world is counting on you to make the
deal of the century!
- Robert J. Traydon is a BSc graduate of Engineering and the author
of Wake-up Call: 2035. He has travelled
to over 40 countries across six continents and worked in various business
spheres. His writing explores a wide range of current affairs from a uniquely
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