For Mboweni's growth plan to succeed the ANC has to give up certain dogmatic positions that were formulated when 7% growth was the status quo, writes Adriaan Basson.
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DA Western Cape premier candidate Alan Winde and party spokesperson on corruption Phumzile van Damme put up a campaign poster in Cape Town. (Jan Gerber, News24)
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Although the national ballot is rather easy to predict, the outcome in some of the provinces is far less certain and thus also much more interesting, writes Melanie Verwoerd.
As we get
closer to the election, opinion polls seem to suggest that there will be little
if any surprise in the outcome of the national ballot.
election were to be held today, various polls indicate that the ANC will get
above 60% of the vote, the DA around 20% and the EFF below 10%. For that to
change significantly, something very dramatic would l have to take place in the
frequently asked whether the recent evidence by Angelo Agrizzi around Bosassa
will damage the ANC election's outcome. From what is known at this point, I don't
believe it will. It is clear that ANC voters are seeing the state capture inquiry
as part of a murky and problematic past and evidence of a new era for the ANC led
by Cyril Ramaphosa.
READ: Western Cape by-elections: DA has reason to worry, ANC must pull up its socks
it is at any stage proven that many of those close to Ramaphosa or of course
Ramaphosa himself are implicated it will be a very different story. He is the ANC's biggest and possibly only draw card. If he goes down, the ANC will
have great difficulty in getting more than 60% or even 50% of the vote.
therefore almost a given that the opposition parties will try their utmost to
tarnish Ramaphosa's image as we head closer to the election.
the national ballot is rather easy to predict, the outcome in some of the
provinces is far less certain and thus also much more interesting. Polls
indicate that the ANC in Gauteng is hovering just below 50%, but with a
likelihood to increase their support and thus stay in control.
in the Western Cape is extremely uncertain at this stage. In the 2014 election
the DA got a comfortable 60% of the seats with the ANC just over 38%. However,
this has changed dramatically according to polls. With the Helen Zille tweets, the
water shortage and Patricia de Lille disaster, it is no longer a foregone
conclusion that the DA will get over 50% of the vote.
members are quick to admit concern. Publicly they deny it, yet their election
posters tell a different story. "Vote DA to keep an EFF-ANC coalition out
of the Western Cape," they read.
months ago when I wrote about their "swart gevaar" tactics, there
were many indignant denials from DA office bearers. However, it is difficult to
interpret these posters in any other way.
for the DA lies in the "coloured" vote. (I apologise for using this
contentious term and also for racial classifications. However, research
confirms that voting patterns in South Africa are still largely along old apartheid
racial lines and thus it is difficult to do any analysis in the absence of
voters are not racially classified when registering, the breakdown usually
corresponds to the population numbers. In 2017 it was estimated that 48% of people
living in the Western Cape were coloured, 35% black, 0.7% Indian and 16% white.
This means that the largest voting block, by far, is made up of coloured
voters. The problem is that the DA has seriously alienated a large section of
figures show that as many as 45% of those polled in the Western Cape were either
undecided or won't vote. According to the polls the ANC support is similar as in
2014. However, the DA support is showing
a significant drop. It would therefore be safe to assume that many of these "undecideds"
were previously DA supporters. Given the demographic it is also fairly obvious
that many of them would be coloured voters.
then that all the parties are trying to woo them. Who would ever have thought that
the Freedom Front Plus (FF+) would choose someone like Peter Marais as their premier
candidate? Although it is a positive sign that the FF+ is able and willing to
break away from their white image, the question needs to be asked whether Marais
is the right person to do so with.
to him being interviewed by Stephen Grootes on SAfm recently reminded me of the
Marais we all knew during the late 1990s – cantankerous and arrogant beyond
belief. In the interview he claimed not to represent anyone except himself and
of course would not answer a single question about his past – especially not
the sexual harassment charges that were laid against him.
was extremely entertaining to listen to, I'm sure that the FF+ will still come
to regret this choice, although Marais might well be able to secure a few extra
votes for them in the rural areas especially.
ALSO READ: Max du Preez - Unsure who to vote for? These are your options
course there is Patricia de Lille's Good Party. Time will tell whether it will
make a significant impact on the election outcome. It might have perhaps been
wiser to focus on the Western Cape and possibly the Northern Cape instead of
trying to compete in all nine provinces.
is that we could see a significant splintering of the DA support base in the
Western Cape. This could result in the party losing their absolute majority.
Despite the DA's fearmongering, it is also unlikely that the ANC and EFF combined will be able to secure over 50% of the vote. This would make the Good Party
and/or the FF+ kingmakers.
question would be with whom these parties would align. This is for a future
column. What is clear, is that the Western Cape is going to be one of the most
hotly contested areas in the country in May with a good measure of political
nastiness thrown into the mix.
- Melanie Verwoerd is a former ANC MP and South African Ambassador to Ireland.Disclaimer: News24 encourages freedom of speech and the expression of diverse views. The views of columnists published on News24 are therefore their own and do not necessarily represent the views of News24.
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