News24 projects: DA to win the Western Cape, ANC to win Northern Cape

2019-05-09 06:40
IEC results centre
IEC results centre (File)

News24 can project that the DA will hang onto the Western Cape, beating back a strong FF Plus effort while the ANC will lose support.

In the Northern Cape, the ANC has held off the DA's attempts to wrest the province from the governing party.

According to News24's statistical model, based on available and representative results in the Western Cape:

- The DA will hang onto its majority, but it could be less than the 57% it secured in 2014.

- The ANC has lost support and will come in at under 30%. It secured 34% in 2014.

- The EFF looks set to garner support of around 3.6% and the Good party is expected to receive around 4%.

- The FF Plus did not make significant inroads in the province.

These numbers are based on almost 17% of votes counted and a voter turnout of 65%.

In the Northern Cape, News24's projections show:

- The ANC will retain its majority with about 57% support in the province.

- The FF Plus has improved its position, taking away support from the DA.

- The DA's support among white voters dropped from 82% to 64%, with support going to the FF Plus.

- The DA, however, is offsetting these losses with increased support from black voters and with overall support increasing from 23.4% to 26.0%.

- Low voter turnout at 64%.

News24's elections analyst Dawie Scholtz says the DA's support in the Western Cape, although lower than in 2014, has remained relatively stable.

"They will be marginally down on the previous election and could end up in the region of 55%."

It doesn't seem as if the assault by the FF Plus, which launched a major campaign in the Western Cape to lure voters away from the DA, was overtly successful but the party is growing nationally.

"We are seeing the FF Plus making major inroads into the DA's support among white voters, especially in the inland areas, but not in the Western Cape. Many voters in the Western Cape did, for example, vote for the DA provincially but FF Plus nationally."

Patricia de Lille's Good is on course to receive support of 4%.

Scholtz says the big game changer in the province is the differential between voter turnout in suburban areas and in rural areas and townships, where almost 75% of voters went to the polls, but only 63% of the latter went.

These same voting patterns repeated itself in the Northern Cape, according to Scholtz, with a differential of 16% between suburban and rural and townships. De Lille's Good, even though the party had its most visible campaign outside of Cape Town, will probably not reach 1% of support in this province.

The DA will be disappointed with its Northern Cape result. It identified the region as one of the two provinces where it felt the ANC could be forced to under 50%. The party also invested significant time and money into campaigning the sparsely populated province.

* News24 will make more projections as reliable and tested data becomes available.

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