Two years ago, I wrote an article “Brexit: A sickening victory for English Nationalism” on MyNews24 where I voiced my opinion that I thought Brexit was a major mistake. However, what Theresa May is attempting now is even worse.
The British public voted to leave the EU so the results of the referendum must be respected, otherwise Britain will become a full-blown autocratic oligarchy as opposed to what it’s hitherto been: a pseudo-democratic oligarchy. One of the biggest lies being perpetuated by the liberal elite, media and intelligentsia in the UK, at the moment, is that people didn’t know what they were voting for e.g. hard, soft or somewhere inbetween Brexit. This is nonsense!
Voting to leave the EU means leaving the EU, i.e. having the same relationship with the EU that the other 160-odd countries in the world have. Of course, there is nothing stopping the UK striking a bilateral trade deal with the EU, á la Japan and Canada, but both those countries having nothing to do with the “four pillars” of EU integration: free flow of goods, services, capital and labour.
However, leaving the EU (hard Brexit) is going to create major economic pain for the UK. It will cause loss of many jobs, a multi-year recession and lots of emigration. It will probably take a generation (25 years) for Britain to totally stabilise and emerge as a completely different society. And I think this is what people who voted “Leave” wanted notwithstanding the considerable pain. They are tired of their country’s culture, people and identity being subsumed by globalisation, mass immigration and unaccountable government.
I think South Africa provides a suitable example to the journey that Britain is about to embark on, should it actually respect the referendum and leave the EU. South Africa has been through a quarter-century of ANC rule so we can look back at the last 25 years and this will give an indication to the UK of what they can expect a generation from now. It’s a mixed score-card: the sky didn’t fall in; business, government, life carried on; a much more humane society exists vis-à-vis the days of apartheid; quality of parastatals and many government services has dropped precipitously; corruption has ballooned and economic growth has stalled.
However, I believe South Africa is a much better country than it would have been if the changes of 1990-1994 didn’t happen. Are there serious problems? Yes, but these challenges are easier to confront than apartheid.
So, getting back to Brexit: leaving the EU is going to be very disruptive, like SA’s transition from apartheid, but it will certainly guarantee change for good or ill. However, the UK has considerable advantages over which SA had in 1994: a much bigger and better educated skilled labour pool, first world infrastructure, cultural and geographic proximity to the world’s biggest markets: EU and North America.
How does Theresa May and the Tory party get out of the current impasse? There are essentially two options: an EEA-type arrangement with EU (á la Norway and Switzerland), which is almost identical to being in the EU and having to accept the four freedoms, or hard Brexit. The UK government is misleading the public by pretending they can cherry-pick the parts of the single-market and customs union that they like and discard the parts they don’t like.
The EU will not accept this and they will only offer EEA-type membership or complete withdrawal for the UK (that’s of course if the UK doesn’t decide to just scrap the whole Brexit thing). The “Remainers” and “Leavers” need to be honest with the public, act in the national interest, and properly level with the public: it’s going to be very painful but we're leaving the EU.