Everyone knows that Cyril Ramaphosa is a negotiation virtuoso, and that on that premise he is likely enjoying the upper hand in the Zexit talks. However, no one really knows the nature and content of that dialogue.
South African citizens are on tenterhooks but optimistic regarding the perceived imminence of Jacob Zuma’s implosion and the implications thereof for the country.
Evidently, Zuma yields a great deal of power within the ANC. Speculation has always been that he carries obnoxious debilitating muck on all the key strategic top members.
The fact that he brazenly asserted, a few times, that he is going nowhere, lends substantial credibility to this speculation. He is untouchable and he knows it. In one of his infamous viral videos, captured at an ANC rally last year, he was heard saying in Zulu that he doesn’t care. “I can run south Africa amok, because I can say things that will drop you down with terror. That’s why I don’t care, regardless of what people say,” he nonchalantly said.
The ANC’s top six knows precisely what that means and that is exactly why JZ is such a bane of their existence and that of SA’s citizens - at such a critical time in the country’s politics and economy. Having been reduced to junk status a few times by respectable global rating agencies in 2017, and grappling to recover and regain sustainability, the country certainly does not need this tomfoolery.
Anyway, negotiations usually end in a win-win right? Most of them do! Otherwise, why even bother? We somewhat all have an idea of what a win for Ramaphosa and his proponents will be. The question is what’s really in it for Zuma? Immunity from persecution perhaps? Cyril says that’s not even on the table. Really?
If I were JZ surely ensuring that I do not get incarcerated when my tenure ends would be right at the top of my demands list. Cyril, says it’s not in his power to give him that. What if it was in his power? Would he do it then? What is Cyril’s stance here?
Is "Zexit" even a thing? Is he really going?
Greedy as he is, and with the amount of power he clearly has, I honestly don’t think he is about to completely relinquish control.
The kind of muck he has on all of them is enough to take them down with him if he does go down. That’s why they are negotiating. He is not going to Jail, that’s a no-brainer. That’s why that’s not even on the table. Everyone knows the story of how his crony, Schabir Schaik, swindled his way out of gaol.
A win for Zuma could be that he clandestinely retains most, if not all control of key strategic ANC and government arms. He’ll agree to an exit only in the public eye, but will probably continue running the country through Cyril. When Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma lost to Cyril at the 54th ANC elective conference, JZ was left with no option but to change his tactics. What he can’t do with NDZ, he will now forcibly do through Cyril.