ANC’s demise could leadto realignment of forces

2018-11-14 06:00

IF you are one of those who want to see the ANC fall, you’d better hope it doesn’t happen at next year’s general election.

It will undoubtedly be bad for our stability and our economy if the ANC gets less than half of the votes next year.

Not only will it be a massive blow to the person best-placed to lead us out of our present predicament, President Cyril Ramaphosa, but it will likely lead to a coalition government between the ANC and the EFF.

Julius Malema will probably push hard for a key cabinet post for himself and one or two more for his co-leaders. A shiver goes down my spine at the mere thought of giving populist, socialist and racial fundamentalists that kind of power. It is, I believe, unlikely to happen. But I also believe that the likelihood of Ramaphosa being able to modernise and reform the ANC, rid it of its worst struggle hangovers and get it to govern the country efficiently with a new vision, is fading by the day.

The more Ramaphosa achieves on the top level, the more we notice the indicators that the rot in his party has probably grown too deep for it to recover.

This is especially true of provincial and local structures in Mpumalanga, KwaZulu-Natal, the Eastern Cape, North West and the Free State.

There is very little evidence left of a liberation movement striving bravely for freedom, dignity and equality. It’s mostly about tenders, jobs, power and money.

The case of Malusi Gigaba shows that the president has anything but a free hand to make appointments and fire senior people, as a president should have. Factions in the party determine what is possible or not.

The evidence is overwhelming that Gigaba played an active role in enabling the capture of the state by the Guptas and others. His record as minister in several portfolios is pathetic, even by ANC standards. His private life is a mess and often plays out in public.

And now the public protector agrees with the courts that he lied under oath; a cardinal sin for someone in his position. But on Sunday he subtly threatened the president in a television interview not to fire him. He was implying that there is a conspiracy in the ANC to get rid of him and destroy his chances of one day becoming president. He could only have meant the Ramaphosa grouping. He is definitely not going to resign, he said, and he is adamant that he will not disappear from active politics if he were — another threat. He added that the ANC Youth League is backing him.

Nhlanhla Nene recently set the example by resigning after a mild fib. Gigaba’s sins, and those of ministers Bathabile Dlamini and Nomvula Mokonyane, are 1 000 times worse. But they are from the anti-Ramaphosa faction, making it much harder to fire them.

Other examples of the ANC’s continuing ethical deficiencies are the R2 million it received from VBS Bank’s biggest shareholder and the initial hesitation to acknowledge this; and the fact that Qedani Mahlangu of Life Esidimeni fame (144 psychiatric patients died) and the allegedly corrupt Brian Hlongwa were kept on as members of the Gauteng ANC’s senior leadership.

If the ANC’s wheels keep on coming off over the next few years, we could possibly see the beginning of a fundamental rearrangement of political forces.

The way things stand now, it appears that the Ramaphosa part of the ANC and at least half of the DA plus the IFP, Cope, UDM and ACDP form the centre of our politics — social democrats, broadly speaking. I would say this centrist grouping would probably represent two-thirds of the voters.

The left will probably group around the EFF and Saftu, while the conservatives in the DA, AfriForum types and the Freedom Front Plus, and possibly some tribal structures, will form the force to the right. If this happens, South Africans will at long last vote more along the lines of their own conviction rather than race or history. That can only be healthy. History teaches that countries with a strong centre are usually the most stable nations.

Stability is the one thing that South Africa needs more than anything else. — Written by: Max du Preez

— News24.

NEXT ON NEWS24X

Join the conversation!

24.com encourages commentary submitted via MyNews24. Contributions of 200 words or more will be considered for publication.

We reserve editorial discretion to decide what will be published.
Read our comments policy for guidelines on contributions.

Inside News24

 
/News
Traffic Alerts
Traffic

Jobs in Cape Town [change area]

Jobs in Western Cape region

HSE Manager

Cape Town
Tumaini Consulting
R550 000.00 - R650 000.00 Per Year

Reporting Accountant

Cape Town
Network Finance Professional / Prudential
R310 000.00 - R360 000.00 Per Year

IT Manager (contract)

Cape Town CBD
Communicate Cape Town IT
R330 000.00 - R458 000.00 Per Year

Property [change area]

There are new stories on the homepage. Click here to see them.
 
English
Afrikaans
isiZulu

Hello 

Create Profile

Creating your profile will enable you to submit photos and stories to get published on News24.


Please provide a username for your profile page:

This username must be unique, cannot be edited and will be used in the URL to your profile page across the entire 24.com network.

Settings

Location Settings

News24 allows you to edit the display of certain components based on a location. If you wish to personalise the page based on your preferences, please select a location for each component and click "Submit" in order for the changes to take affect.




Facebook Sign-In

Hi News addict,

Join the News24 Community to be involved in breaking the news.

Log in with Facebook to comment and personalise news, weather and listings.