Experts question validity of crime stats

2012-09-21 09:12

Johannesburg - Crime researchers have questioned the validity of statistics showing a decline in serious and violent crimes, The Times newspaper reported on Friday.

Referring to "remarkable decreases" in particularly the Pretoria policing areas of Erasmia and Wierdabrug, University of SA criminologist Rudolph Zinn said the dramatic drops in crime were unexplained.

"When one asks for an explanation, none is provided. On top of this, whatever is being done 'right' is not rolled out to other stations in their policing cluster," Zinn told the newspaper.

Releasing the statistics on Thursday, Police Minister Nathi Mthethwa said crime was down in most categories in 2011/12.

There were declines in all seven categories of contact crime - murder, attempted murder, sexual offences, assault with intent to do grievous bodily harm, common assault, aggravated robbery, and common robbery.

These crimes accounted for 29.9% of South Africa’s recorded serious crimes, Mthethwa said.

Zinn said the absence of reasons for a decrease in crime cast serious doubt on the methodology used to gather and record information and "must be queried".

Institute for Security Studies researcher Dr Johan Burger said the rate at which some crimes were declining or even rising was worrying.

"The rate has been more than halved. The police are nowhere near their targets, with some categories of crime - such as business robberies - increasing.

He said it was vital that external audits be conducted of the crime statistics so accurate information could be documented.

  • pierrefrewd.juice - 2012-09-21 09:17

    smell a rat?

      squeegee.pilot - 2012-09-21 09:40

      When you mix politics and statistics you always get a pile of smelly ....

      oscar.pretorius.52 - 2012-09-21 09:49

      I did a course in statistics a while back. Can't recall much to be honest but the one thing I do remember is what the lecturer said: "You can always lie with statistics". Unfortunately too many people out there accept statistics as gospel

      nrgx.nrg - 2012-09-21 09:51

      of course theres a rat, when our police minister says crime is decreasing and Interpol say its on the increase. im leaning towards Interpols statistics being the more believable!

      megala.arxithia - 2012-09-21 10:15

      I travel extensively and feel more unsafe in my own up-market neighbourhood in CT than I feel in foreigh countries. Its a sad reality and no amount of crime state is going to change that real feeling. The minister says that citizens of this country perceive crime to be high. Thats a absolute joke as the minister drives around with bodyguards and all. Why doesnt he walk around any CBD at night by himself and see what crime lurks. This country is extremely dangerous and the stats, although doctored, say it all!

      BulletProof. - 2012-09-21 10:17

      This is all an electoral cover up, nothing is working in this country and the comunism is taking over.Open your eyes.

      claudia.meads - 2012-09-21 12:02

      I did not doubt for one second the stats were a lie; check my response to the initial article - that is if the N24 Gestapo did not remove it (little do they realise they simply validate my notions by removing it - but such is the inherent idiocy of Afro-fascism). However, crime stats is only one of a plethora of lies, crafted by the ANC regime - others include SA's inflation rate; the core reason it looks like the economy is growing (naturally a lie to make the ANC look competent - ye right..!) while nothing happens (eg) to the rate of unemployment (then they fabricate fairy tales like - "jobless growth", bla, bla, fishpaste. Perhaps the Marikana Muti-men will believe them). Lies, incompetence, corruption, crime, etc, etc - the fact is, THE ANC WILL DESTROY SA.., no doubt.., the only question is how long; SO DO NOT SAY YOU WERE NOT FOREWARNED. The only truth the ANC will ever utter is when it admits it lies.

      pierre.walt - 2012-09-21 14:45

      @Cladia. Who will we vote for? Only DA>

      Nicholas.Spaggiari - 2012-09-22 15:16

      It's just to get more votes, they masters at fooling those idiots who vote for them... lol

  • Erna - 2012-09-21 09:19

    The only people who are happy and satisfied are the anc ministers, same as with education when announcing our wonderful matric results.

      kobie.nel1 - 2012-09-21 11:24

      Well said. Anyone who believe that stats are ably to tell lies themselfs without blushing at all.

      kobie.nel1 - 2012-09-21 11:25

      "ably" what word is that?? "ABLE" should it be....eishhhh

      haigs - 2012-09-21 15:30

      Quite right Kobie, a good word! ably - definition of ably by the Free Online Dictionary, Thesaurus and - Similar You +1'd this publicly. Undo adj. a·bler, a·blest. 1. Having sufficient power or resources to accomplish something: a singer able to reach high notes; a detergent able to remove stains. 2. Unmistakably - Capably - Knowledgeably - Ably

  • victoria.kennedy.3532 - 2012-09-21 09:21

    Seriously was an expert needed to state the obvious? Nonetheless I am glad that they have aired their views, maybe government will be a little more cautious next before trying to blatantly lie to the public!

      victoria.kennedy.3532 - 2012-09-21 10:18

      @ Leonard, sadly what you say is true. Sometimes the tiny optimist in me pops out in hope that the citizens in South Africa will just wake up and realise that we are constantly being lied to by government.

  • aroka.murombe - 2012-09-21 09:23

    I'd say its zuma looking for his second term.

      oscar.pretorius.52 - 2012-09-21 10:05

      He's going to have to do better than that. The day I feel safe and can take down my electric fence, high walls and leave my front door unlocked....that will be the day I vote for Zuma.

  • ernie.croucher - 2012-09-21 09:23

    What has been left out of his report to make it look good. talk is cheap .

      andrew.mackie.90 - 2012-09-21 11:29

      Well if anyone listened to Mthethwa radio interview this morning it is quite clear this man does not have a clue on any policing matters and I would suggest he just rides the gravy train.

  • hendrikvs - 2012-09-21 09:33

    Well the person who believes anything the anc propaganda tells us....????

  • andynct - 2012-09-21 09:33

    Perceptions! "Experts" who make those kind of assertions really need to put proof on the table. Do the local crime watch stats contradict the police stats? I've in the past compared our crime watch stats to the police because people claim the police stats under report and found no problem. Our crime watch stats were lower than the police stats.

      nrgx.nrg - 2012-09-21 09:58

      proof: There are many other reports on the interwebs, but then again who would you believe. Personally I believe ALL OTHER international and local independent reports. Or are you saying they are ALL wrong, and the anc is telling the truth? WAKE UP!

      irma.geniuos - 2012-09-21 10:21

      I agree completely. Just as the government may have an interest in understating crime there are many who have a vested interest in overstating it.

      nrgx.nrg - 2012-09-21 10:43

      Irma...The most absurd apology for authority and law is that they serve to diminish crime. Aside from the fact that the State is itself the greatest criminal, breaking every written and natural law, stealing in the form of taxes, killing in the form of war and capital punishment, it has come to an absolute standstill in coping with crime. It has failed utterly to destroy or even minimize the horrible scourge of its own creation.

      Erna - 2012-09-21 11:35

      I think its in the government's interest to fudge the statistics.

  • jacobs.clint - 2012-09-21 09:41

    lA LA lA LA lA LA...IN THE LAND OF THE SMURFS there's no crime!!

  • tshepo.maganedisa - 2012-09-21 09:43

    The minister presented this stats as if this was something worth celebrating, he said "decline" as if crime was no more, this is still one of the unsafest countries to live in and he wants us to celebrate this mediocre

      nrgx.nrg - 2012-09-21 10:04

      I wonder if the minister realises the following stat before he celebrates! Deaths in Afghanistan during war time (2011-2012) = 3188 (this no. includes coalition, enemy forces and civilians) Criminal deaths in SA (2011 - 2012) = 15609 This is 5x the amount of deaths than a country who is currently at war. THIS IS NOTHING TO BE PROUD OF MINISTER!

  • ian.flack2 - 2012-09-21 09:43

    People have given up on the police and therefore do not even bother reporting crime anymore.........of course the stats will get better, the crime has "gone away".........

      irma.geniuos - 2012-09-21 10:09

      If that is true, then you have only yourselves to blame.

      nrgx.nrg - 2012-09-21 10:34

      Too much mercy... often resulted in further crimes which were fatal to innocent victims who need not have been victims if justice had been put first and mercy second.

      Erna - 2012-09-21 11:36

      irma have you ever tried to report a serious crime to the police?

      John - 2012-09-21 18:22

      Reporting to the useless SAPS is a waste of time and resources! Go to one of these useless SAPS stations and observe how you are regarded as the SERVANT of the insolent ignorant thug behind the counter! You are a CLIENT of this corporate business called the SAPS, which is in truth the SA POLICY ENFORCING SERVICE of the FASCIST government. But one needs a modicum of intelligence to perceive the erosion of OUR sovereign RIGHTS by OUR supposed SERVANT, the FASCIST government!!!!

  • chris.steytler.1 - 2012-09-21 09:45

    Wouldnt trust ou Nathi as far as I could throw him. He radiates b*llsh*t.

  • rhea.balchund - 2012-09-21 09:56

    Who the heck do they think they fooling, goverment propaganda to try have people believe they doing a good job.Only independant statistic analysis would confirm.I'd question this goverment even if they told me a granny smith apple is green.

  • matt.dibbs.9 - 2012-09-21 09:58

    There will never be any serious effort made to reduce crime as it contributes to the government coffers. For every vehicle stolen, government gets paid (average of R70k per vehicle), housebreaking, (insurance and cost to replace items stolen) government gets paid. With over 9000 registered security companies in South Africa, people are employed, government gets paid. Compare SA to the UK (similar population, SA = 42 murders a day, UK = 2 murders a day). In the UK, victims of crime are compensated by the government. Crime in the UK does not pay. Crime in SA does pay........the government.

      John - 2012-09-21 15:07

      You got that RIGHT! Hit the nail on the head. If only the populace could duplicate the idea!

  • nicolas.gombert.16 - 2012-09-21 10:00

    With the ever increasing SAPS budget and a 30% increase in the number of members since 2010, one has to question whether our current policing is remotely successful or whether crime has merely stabilised. As for all these extra resources, they can only show a 1.43% decrease in serious crimes? It is internally focused, lacks clear vision and direction and is riddled with fat, lazy, ill-disciplined, corrupt members, as I cannot dare to call them policemen, as they are a disgrace to the SAPS. The structures of the SAPS is so politicised, doing serious crime fighting is simply no longer possible. The SAPS suffers from the crab syndrome: put one crab in a basket and he is out in a flash, put two crabs in the basket, and as soon as one attempts to escape, the other one will pull it back. We need some serious rethinking on the SAPS, it is simply NOT effective, let alone efficient. But I do take my hat of to those few dedicated policemen who is still doing a good job. Vasbyt!

  • irma.geniuos - 2012-09-21 10:07

    Zinn is, to put a fine point on it, talking out of his ass. It is the exception to be able to truly explain changes in crime statistics. Yes, the authorities can invent reasons, and in countries like the US that is what they typically do, but they are never able to genuinely show a causative link. What is alleged to have been the solution in one location turns out to have no impact when implemented anywhere else. The fact is that South Africans have now made high crime part of their identity, and they'll never believe the rates are down, no matter what the figures show, no matter what the government says. Yes, governments lie, they all do, but where is the evidence from these 'experts' to demonstrate the government's claims are wrong?

      Erna - 2012-09-21 11:38

      We see the evidence every day!!

      John - 2012-09-21 15:02

      I do NOT bother to report crime. My neighbors do not bother to report crime. It is a waste of time and resources. The reports are only used for INSURANCE claims. The SAPS are a useless bunch of sweepers and brooms that only clean up after the crime and are not too good at that! Private security firms have to protect the SAPS. They at least present the image of protectors to their clients. You may not have noticed but you are a CLIENT of the SAPS. I have never CONTRACTED with SAPS. How did I become a CLIENT?

  • Denephe - 2012-09-21 10:07

    I don't believe a word these corrupt ANC Government liars are trying to feed us - no such thing is a drop in crime in SA!!!

  • bongani.nsele.58 - 2012-09-21 10:10

    experts are asking for proof of crime stats, they say it is all cooked up...but the very experts have no proof themselves that the crime levels have skyrocketed and if they can't provide proof on the contrary, then they are no experts

      heiku.staude - 2012-09-21 12:23

      According to the article the 'experts' want an explanation as to why the crime has dropped. I dont really care either way but I agree with you if you dont have any proof why are you getting media coverage?

  • mantothieve.missingman - 2012-09-21 10:13

    If the anc tells you grass is green , you better double check

  • winifred.watson.9 - 2012-09-21 10:23

    Crime it haunts every one of us daily. Look around your area and see how houses and shops are barred up big steel security on doors and windows, Children cant play safely in their own gardens, woman and children raped even old defenceless grannies. Murders are sadistic. What are the stats for these criminals how many of them are currently in jail for these offences.......a small percentage and now you know why they say CRIME PAYS.

      John - 2012-09-21 15:20

      You are right! Now if we could get the populace to LOOK and PERCEIVE we would not need a PR exercise from the SAPS attempting to validate their CORRUPT existance! If there was a constable on every street corner then WE would see a reduction in crime.

  • lerato.kay.3 - 2012-09-21 10:26

    The reduction in violent crimes can be attributed to Bheki Cele’s no nonsense approach, if the Police can provide us with the number of criminals that were killed by the SAPS one would see a positive correlation between crime reduction and shoot to kill policy. In as much as Bheki had his ills I salute him for not playing monopoly with criminals! The problem is we got prophets of doom in our midst anything positive is taken as ANC propaganda, just take a look at how Spain is taking over with regards to crime. Why are we so negative ?????

      craig.b.johnston.7 - 2012-09-21 10:41

      every week in my local newspaper i read atleast 3 pages of "dad and son shot braaing in back yard",or "79 year old woman raped" and so on.the other day i went to the freakin post office to collect, and the doors were locked with police tape crossing the entrance.Now you ask why so negative?show me how many other places in the world i need to go and fetch my post armed with a shotgun.

      John - 2012-09-21 14:23

      You need to become along with your mother,sister,father and brother, a victim of the constitutionally lost POLICY ENFORCING SAP FORCE. Note I said FORCE not SERVICE as they pretend to be! They do NOT serve or PROTECT the PEOPLE. You may then lose your viscious malignant attitude to their victims!

      John - 2012-09-21 14:33

      Bheki Cele is a lying, corrupt thieving thug as has been proved by his REMOVAL as national commissioner of HIS CREATION the SA THUG FORCE thus destroying OUR SOVEREIGN RIGHTS. Unfortunately one needs a modicum of intelligence to understand the government's erosion of OUR rights!

  • John - 2012-09-21 10:46

    Crime stastistics are simply put a bulldust explosion Public Relations exercise by the SAPS. Impersonally do not bother to report crimes committed against me because it is a waste of my time giving a statement to an illiterate and self righteous insolent POLICY ENFORCER who has no interest in PREVENTING or SOLVING crime!! The insolent writes the statement in his own version instead of duplicating the complaint by the complainant. There is NO follow up feedback to the complainant!

  • brett.scheepers - 2012-09-21 10:47

    A friend of mine works Murder cases at one of PE Police stations and stats show only 4 cases for the year......he has a table full of files for 2011.These stats are very manipulated.

  • marc.klynhans - 2012-09-21 10:51

    That Computicket ad sucks!

  • sven.b.hansen - 2012-09-21 11:19

    This goes out to the ignorant twats who are actually defending the recently produced statistics- how can you actually defend or agree with these stats?! South Africa is a crime hotspot! We live in a country of rape, pillage, murder, extortion, car jackings, house breaking's....FFS, the list goes on. What committed government would be satisfied with this level of lawlessness?! Crime would have to drop by 60% at least, to put South Africa on the level with the rest of the law abiding world. Our crime rate is notorious around the globe. The ANC is too busy lining it's pockets to give a flying F*%k about the honest citizens of this country...Zuma, don't brag about this piss-poor drop in crime...your entire Cabinet is a crying shame to all humanity. So to all those who think that this miniscule drop in crime within SA is acceptable, an achievement....wipe the s*%t of your eyes. Can you honestly tell me that this is acceptable...??

  • jessica.main.501 - 2012-09-21 11:23

    They have to make the report look good for people to beleive that they are doing a good job. how many people will beleive that the crime has gone down. they really think we are 2 year old children.

  • FeebleGastro - 2012-09-21 11:30

    Blah blah blah... when their lips move and all that...

  • jacqui.daanevanrensburg - 2012-09-21 12:22

    Nothing worth researching. Dcember is coming and Zuma wants to be re-elected together with his bunch of fat cats. So expect more 'miracle' announcements. Now why do they think we ALL are stupid?.

      jacqui.daanevanrensburg - 2012-09-21 12:27

      I forgot the E in December. Geez.

  • pierre.walt - 2012-09-21 14:44

    I told you so - how the hell can we believe him. If someone will finance me, I will start a information system capturing all crime reporting. I have a Honors in Information Management and will gladly do so.

  • maureen.churchill.9 - 2012-09-21 16:02

    Probably find crime fell sharply in ANC areas, I have never believed the stats put out and never will.

  • social12345 - 2012-09-23 09:53

    It's the Nature of the Beast (in the DNA), Murderers, Rapists and Thieves. Their brains are designed to act on two impulses only, 1) Consumption 2) Destruction. The scourge of our planet, they are neither Human or Animal, they are "The Unreconstructable Neanderthals!"

  • guy.goes1 - 2012-09-25 17:21

    statistics and other lies , whats new. I have long since given up reporting the numerous break inns i have had in my factories. It simply does not serve a purpose and is very time consuming because the persons taking details are busy, you wait in queues and the results seem always the same. no feed back, no round ups, no obvious action. it floors me that thieves with minimal education and infrastructure run rings around our cops and security companies. i once tried to phone in a burgelary in action to be told that there were no policemen available. The crime rate is huge, look simply at the disappearance of almost all metal municipal sewage and electrical covers,it tells us the story.

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