ANC has lost some support ahead of elections - latest IRR poll

2019-03-06 12:35
(Thapelo Maphakela, Gallo Images, file)

(Thapelo Maphakela, Gallo Images, file)

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The ANC has lost some support nationally ahead of the elections, according to a latest poll from the Institute of Race Relations (IRR)

The party currently stands on 54.7%, down 1.3 percentage points from the December result of 56%. The DA is at 21.8%, which is a 3.1% percentage point increase from 18%.

According to the February poll, the EFF is standing at 12.2%. This is a 1.2 percentage point increase from 11% recorded in the December snap poll.

The first poll that the IRR conducted was in September. 

That poll showed that the governing party was increasing its support. However, the IRR says that seems to have changed as opposition parties begin to make inroads ahead of the elections.

The IRR said that it had interviewed 1 600 registered voters telephonically between February 12-26. The margin of error is 3.3%. The survey was also extended to two provincial samples, namely Gauteng and the Western Cape. In Gauteng, 502 registered voters took part, and 405 in the Western Cape. 

Voter turnout

The IRR says the ANC may claw back to 55%, should voter turnout hit an expected 71%.

"But a lower voter turnout will give more support to the DA, and would not help the ANC in any way," said IRR head of politics and governance Gareth van Onselen.

"The ANC's general decline from 2014 can be almost exclusively attributed to the growth of the EFF, as the parties are now locked in a battle for between 5% and 10% of alienated black ANC voters," Van Onselen said.

According to the research institution, the EFF currently has a 12.2% support base, with 98.1% of its supporters being black voters, while 0.4% are white.

Van Onselen said that the EFF appeared to be the only opposition party able to make direct and significant inroads into the ANC's support.

"The backbone if the EFF's national support is to be found in Gauteng, where the party stands at 18.2% on the provincial ballot, and the ANC on 42.6%.

At the same time, the DA's support seems to be set for some small growth in Gauteng and, even in a low voter turnout scenario, the ANC fails to get to 50%.

That may lead to a coalition government, which the DA uses to govern the Tshwane and Johannesburg metros.

"All three big parties - ANC, DA and EFF - appear to be able to form a majority coalition: the ANC and the EFF; the EFF and the DA; and even the ANC and the DA," Van Onselen said.

The ANC's support base by race shows that 96.2% of its supporters are black voters, who would be voting for the party, according to the IRR.

Western Cape

In the Western Cape, however, the DA is not doing so well.

"The DA has been suffering a torture by a thousand cuts. In the wake of its internal incoherence and infighting over the past two years, it appears the number of voters it has consolidated under its banner from other smaller parties have returned to those parties," Van Onselen said.

As a result, both the ACDP and the FF Plus are making a good showing in the province, and former Cape Town mayor Patricia de Lille's Good party has, so far, also managed to gather some support, polling at 2.5%.

The IRR says these parties could hinder the DA in retaining a majority in the province.

Van Onselen said that the next survey would be conducted in April and that the IRR intends to publish the results in the week before the much anticipated May 8 elections.

Read more on:    da  |  irr  |  anc  |  eff  |  elections  |  elections 2019  |  politics
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