ANC plummeting, says poll

2019-05-07 15:30
(Gallo Images)

(Gallo Images)

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An independent survey has delivered a last-minute shock to the ANC before the election, suggesting it could be in danger of losing power in KwaZulu-Natal.

The Institute of Race Relations (IRR) survey released on Monday shows ANC support in the province dropping below 50% in the period under review.

If 70% of the 5,3 million voters were to turn out, and barring a dramatic event by today, the ANC is likely to garner 48% of the province’s vote, the poll (with six percent margin of error) found.

The poll, which gauged voter sentiments until May 4, shows DA KZN support growing to 23% from 12,76% in the 2014 general elections while the EFF gets 13% of the vote, up from 1,85%. The IFP, which got 10,86% of the provincial vote in the 2014 general elections, is likely to receive 10% this time around.

Gareth van Onselen, IRR’s head of politics and governance, said while the results were more or less a reflection of voter sentiments during the period in which data was collected, the study did not amount to a prediction of the elections outcome.

“It is not possible to precisely predict the election result. We are, however, confident our data is accurate for the period under review. Thus, all this survey can tell you is the nature of the electoral market in the week preceding the election, and suggest where some of the trend lines are headed, with four days to go until the election,” he said.

The latest pre-election IRR poll, with a sample of 2 000, shows that the ANC could also fail to get a majority in Gauteng.

The tracking poll, which was in the field from April 27 to May 4, is the fifth survey undertaken by the IRR since September 2018. The report shows that the ANC could garner less than 55% of the national vote.

Previous polls have also suggested the race in Gauteng may be too close to call, but the suggestion that KwaZulu-Natal — historically an ANC stronghold where the party won 64% of the vote in 2014 — might not go to the ANC, may come as a surprise to many.

Van Onselen said the IRR research had found the ANC could receive 53% support nationally, the DA 24%, while the EFF could grow to 14%.

The latest survey sees the IFP growing by less than one percent nationally.

Van Onselen said ANC support among black voters had declined, with the DA enjoying a marginal spike.

“The DA systematically consolidated its share of white KZN voters. Among Indian voters, the DA also systematically consolidated its support upwards,” he said.

While a similar survey conducted by global market research firm Ipsos showed a sharp decline in ANC support, it had also shown a decline in support for the DA.

The ANC in KZN has rejected the latest IRR survey, saying it was designed to “excite” opposition parties ahead of tomorrow’s polls.

“It’s not a true reflection of the views of people on the ground, it is completely detached from reality. Our view is that the researchers who conducted the survey are likely to be sympathetic to opposition parties,” said ANC provincial secretary Mdumiseni Ntuli.

Director of Research at the Mapungubwe Institute for Strategic Reflection (Mistra) Susan Booysen, said while trends suggested that the ANC could lose some support in KZN, the figures might not be as poor as those in the IRR’s report. “In any case, if you add back the IRR’s margin of error, then the ANC in KZN could get anything between 50 and 54% in the elections.”

Read more on:    pietermaritzburg  |  elections

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