Analysts: Malema's chances bleak

2012-03-01 14:44

Cape Town - Julius Malema may take his battle with the ANC leadership all the way to the party's conference in Mangaung, but the youth league's defiance of President Jacob Zuma has put him in a tighter corner than ever.

Following his expulsion from the party on Wednesday, Malema has a fortnight to appeal the sentence to the ANC's National Disciplinary Committee of Appeal (NDCA), headed by Cyril Ramaphosa.

Political analyst Steven Friedman said it was a foregone conclusion that Malema would appeal, but it should not be assumed that the higher body would simply rubberstamp the penalty imposed by the National Disciplinary Committee (NDC).

"He will appeal, but I don't think what happens then is a formality. It should not be expected that they would simply confirm the current verdict," he said on Thursday.


Friedman predicted that the appeal committee would not absolve the ANC youth league leader, but it could decide to suspend him, in line with the original sentence imposed by the disciplinary committee last year.

"They are not going to say it has all been a dreadful mistake. But it is not completely off the wall that they will say let's reduce this.

"The ANC will get the best of both worlds. It will be seen to discipline him, but not to be totally unyielding and harsh."

Friedman said the youth league's disruption of a speech by President Jacob Zuma in Cape Town had cost Malema support from those opposing Zuma in the ANC's factional battle.

His supporters sang "Zuma, where's Juju? We are incomplete" while the president spoke, drawing a stern warning from him that the party would address ill-discipline in its ranks.

"Last week has surely weakened the position of people who would like to defend him," Friedman said.

Malema's options do not end with the appeal process. He could still ask the ANC's national executive committee to review the matter and if that fails, take it to the conference floor in Mangaung in December in what would be an unprecedented move in the party's 100-year history.

No favours

The matter has already dragged on since November, when he was found guilty by the disciplinary committee of bringing the ANC into disrepute and sowing division in its ranks and suspended from the party for five years.

On February 4, the appeal committee upheld the finding but instructed the lower panel to hear arguments in mitigation or aggravation of sentence.

Malema's subsequent comments that only the youth league had the power to oust its leaders did him no favours.

On Wednesday night, that committee pronounced the ultimate penalty after describing Malema as a repeat offender who had failed to show remorse or to respect the disciplinary structures of the organisation.

"He (Malema) said that the disciplinary proceedings will come to an end but the real battle will start after that when the ANC has to persuade the youth," the committee said.


"In the NDC's view, this evidence is indicative of comrade Malema's unrepentant attitude and non-acceptance of the findings of the disciplinary machinery of the ANC, particularly the NDCA.

"However, Comrade Malema's refusal to accept the findings of the NDCA, which confirm the findings of the NDC, is clearly untenable."

Malema was found guilty of portraying the ANC government and its leadership under Zuma in a negative light, and for statements about creating regime change in Botswana, at an ANCYL press conference on July 31, 2011.

Malema was also found guilty of propagating racism or political intolerance for his utterances, at an election rally in Galeshewe, Kimberley in May 2011, saying that whites should be treated as criminals for stealing land from blacks.

During his mitigation hearing, Malema said the charges against him were "politically motivated", an argument which both the NDC and the appeal committee rejected.

  • Lulama - 2012-03-01 14:54

    he must just take an early retirement and live us alone. The whole country has had it with him

      David - 2012-03-01 15:03

      He must accept the fact that he has been expelled and live with it.

      Leon - 2012-03-01 15:04

      Yep he's taking LEAVE..

      Moss - 2012-03-01 15:07

      He is not in gov idiot, you are the one who gives him all the attention..

      Poloyatonki - 2012-03-01 15:15

      Dont generalise Lulama.

      Henri - 2012-03-01 15:15

      Ha ha ha ha ek kan nie wag vir die naweek se clash nie, die pienk koeie teen die cheetahs, o dit gaan n lekker grap wees om daai pienk meisies op die veld te sien, en dit nog in die boere stad

      Robert - 2012-03-01 15:19

      All this troublemaker wants to do is fight. But he's not even a soldier. Does wearing a beret and eating Nando's make him a soldier?

      Robert - 2012-03-01 15:32

      @ Papa - that's nothing, have you seen his supporters ???

      E=MC2 - 2012-03-01 15:51

      Polyodonkey, you need some more kleenex?

      Alan - 2012-03-01 16:03

      Wait till Juju is officially expelled after his next appeal. The the HAWKS and SARS are gonna nail him big time, and then he will get what he deserves. I.E. An Orange suit, and a shared cell with Big Bubba.

      Morama - 2012-03-01 19:20

      You are brainwashed man,you better leave to Australia just like Malema haters and leave us with South Africa so that we live but not according to westerners but African!!!

      Burton - 2012-03-02 11:16

      So Morama, You will give up you cars, clothes, house, tar roads, watches, everything and go live in a mud hut and wear loin clothes? Thats the African way!

      Alan - 2012-03-02 11:30

      Sure he will Burton ... but maybe not the Johnnie Walker Blue Label..... @Morama - Keep Walking man .... whaahaaa

  • Joel - 2012-03-01 15:01

    Is Julius Malema's position now worse than Jacob Zuma's in 2006? I doubt that. Julius Malema has a good chance of fighting all the way to Mangaung. Many ANC branch members are silent now but it does not necessarily mean that they agree with what is going on. Jacob Zuma and Gwede Mantashe's iron fist is now everywhere but ANC branches have to be respected and they will eventually pronounce on this matter. There is no reason for Julius Malema to act as if he is guilty, when it has been clear all along that the likes of Derek Hanekom and Collins Chabane were always out to get him. Theirs has always been a kangaroo court with a predetermined oucome. No amount of spin can detract from this fact.

      kgomotso.radise - 2012-03-01 15:11

      Malema must do likewise leave his office without appeal Mbeki & Holomisa did so without a fight

      mbathamv - 2012-03-01 15:20

      JZ was fired from the Government not the ANC. JZ had the ANC platform to mobilize. Juju has no platform to mobilize from as he will be expelled. Those who are within the ANC will have will have to mobilize for him without breaking the ANC constitution. This will be the test of how much support he has within!!!!

      Marion - 2012-03-01 15:23

      @Joel... Don't you think that by dragging Hanekom and Chabane into a kangaroo court you discredit all the other members of the NDC and NDCA as being unprincipled individuals who would allow themselves to be swayed by Hanekom and Chabane even if they believed Julius was being victimised?

      Jacques - 2012-03-01 21:07

      @Joel. Predetermined outcome...What is that supposed to mean. If you charge some one, the purpose is to dissipline him for something you believe is against your believe or policy. Of coarse it is predetermind. Why else charge someone. Do you arrest innocent people in the street and then see the outcome. No it is predetermined based on facts

      Elle-Black - 2012-03-02 08:59

      @ Joel the difference between Malema and Zuma is that throughout his turmulous times Zuma did not worsen the situation by spewing bile,on the contrary he kept quiet in as far as he possibly could and only responded to questions that were posed to him in formal hearings.When he was forced to adress certain matters he handled things with tact, now tell me can the same be said about malema?

      Peter - 2012-03-02 09:35

      Joel beware of history repeating itself. Remember a guy caleed Adolf Hitler and all the sh$t he caused.

      CALAMITYSA - 2012-03-02 09:55

      Joel - Now you criticize the ANC's National Disciplinary Committee of Appeal (NDCA) as well. Thank you. Shows the division in the ranks. Read and listen to the other comments. 100% right - not yours though - look at the score.

  • Tahir - 2012-03-01 15:04

    Malema's expulsion proves that the ANC is a disciplined and democratic organisation, due processes were followed by the ANC with regards to Malema's trial and expulsion. You cannot simply charge or expel anyone without proper investigations and a fair trial - it is undemocratic. The ANC gave Malema rope and as expected he took it and hung himself.

  • S - 2012-03-01 15:05

    Exactly how many appeals does one get in the ANC? This was already an appeal that he lost - badly. Now he gets to appeal the appeal, and after that appeal, another appeal, and another. AN bloody Circus.

      J-Man - 2012-03-01 15:36

      You get to appeal until you are seems.

      Henri - 2012-03-01 16:08

      eventually the peel will be able to apeal that 2 !!!!

      Gerhard - 2012-03-01 17:04

      A lot of journalists do not even go there. The pathetic performance of the ANC once again becomes apparent.

      S - 2012-03-01 17:08

      The peel is a pooze.

      Jacques - 2012-03-01 21:08

      ha ha funny stirrer

      Raymond - 2012-03-02 07:58

      He's like an Indian bowler. Appeals for no reason other than the fact that he can.

  • Den - 2012-03-01 15:08

    really pathetic, get rid of him and lets fix this place

  • David - 2012-03-01 15:09

    Similar to a corporate company trying to fire a useless worker. Very difficult to do.

  • Khetho - 2012-03-01 15:09

    no comment, Politics just a game

  • Samuel - 2012-03-01 15:10

    He's like an insect that has just been sprayed with poison. Just wish he would die already!

  • E=MC2 - 2012-03-01 15:10

    Malemaaaa-bla bla bla...

  • Christian J Denyschen - 2012-03-01 15:16

    thats it juliass keep fighting dont let these white imperialist get you down or silence you, one day you wont be know for bringing economic freedom but as the one who sunk the anc! Viva juliass Viva!!!!

      Christian J Denyschen - 2012-03-01 16:03

      new record lats time i had any thing close 2 this much thumbs down was when i said the stormers are a crap rugby team haha love it!

      Hettie - 2012-03-02 10:10


  • David Ndala Banda - 2012-03-01 15:17

    The ANC have to very careful to the way the act Malema issus should be look at it before the act Very hash on Malema. Malema statement was not he is own But of the ANCYL so if the ANC find it anfair for Malema to Speak out first the should call all the ANCYL members so That the can ask them about the statement that Malema issued if It was he is own. And what the ANC has done now is making things Worse for some of the top leaders in the ANC now That the gloves are off you will hear a lot of stuff From Malema cause Malema does know a lot of who did that to get that Watch the space

      Bardy - 2012-03-01 15:20

      I did not understand a word you said... O_o?

      tdebwe - 2012-03-01 15:28

      i believe ANC has done well in suspending Malema considering his influence to the party.This has showed to all Political Parties in Africa that the structures in ANC is intact.This is indeed a lesson to all political parties in Africa.This indeed showed the discipline and Democratic within the ANC structures.Thumb up!

      Marion - 2012-03-01 15:28

      I welcome Malema spilling the beans on who did what to get what... just hope he has evidence.

      Alfred - 2012-03-01 15:47

      At first I thought that was supposed to be some sort of bizarre African poem or something. David, Julius Malema is very much responsible for his own statements. He is the ANCYL leader, not its spokesperson. It's quite funny how these threats of exposing corrupt ANC officials have started popping up, it's almost an admission of what we all already know, that Julius is corrupt too. But please, be my guest. I can literally hear the cracks within the ANC splitting wide open, and I'm loving every second of it.

      ernest.gouws - 2012-03-01 15:50

      Sounds like you and Julius went to the same school, no teachers and long breaks.

      Alan - 2012-03-01 16:05

      WTF was that all about???????

      Paul - 2012-03-01 16:13

      Exactly David. Now perhaps you can convince your government to install a much better education system so we can understand what you've written. Perhaps Juju Malema could have helped instead of detracted from South Africa as a nation. Perhaps you can help too by learning how to speak a language you insist on posting your comments in. Perhaps

      Ian - 2012-03-01 16:55

      What he is saying is that, along with anc policy, one can say and do what one wants without being accountable" because it is always some other invisible entities fault!

      arcticencounter - 2012-03-02 12:26

      What unintelligible drivel is this? The ANC has to distance themselves from Malema like they did with Selebi - they have no other alternative. They want to wash their dirty hands of the R400 million tender fraud he is being investigated for. It is neither a political move, nor a disciplinary matter; they cannot afford to be implicated in more fraudulent money-making (stealing?) schemes at this stage. The patronage network of Zuma's administration will not survive another scandal; a lot of people have paid a lot of money to be included and one would not want one's "investors" p*ssed off.

  • Allan - 2012-03-01 15:17

    This carrot and stick approach of sentence followed by appeal (repeat) is designed to make both parties save face, but unfortunately could mean his resurrection; which means the nation loses face. I'm not against the carrot and stick approach, as long as they hit him with the carrot and make him eat the stick.

  • Poloyatonki - 2012-03-01 15:18

    This is the time for ANCYL members to work at the grass roots level and establish a secret plan.

      Marion - 2012-03-01 15:30

      @Poloyatonki - a secret plan will only work if everyone knows how to button their lip but sadly some people don't know how to and will soon be up on a podium sprouting words that should have remained secret.

      Robert - 2012-03-01 15:33

      They tried that but someone smoked all the grass and the plan went down the toilet.

      Morama - 2012-03-01 19:56

      @Poloyatonki,we are the ANC and not going back.The denialists have time to enjoy and rejoice...the only problem is that they don't know what's in store for them.SHHHHHHH....listen attentavely.....can the denialists hear what's coming?

      Jacques - 2012-03-01 21:13

      Hey Poloyatonki...exactly the problem with the ANCYL. It has never moved beyond grass roots. Grass roots is the top of the foodchain for them

  • cosmos.ndebele - 2012-03-01 15:18


      Bardy - 2012-03-01 15:26

      Remembered as a joke yes!

      schewitz - 2012-03-01 18:04

      you claim not to be a racist but you evidently support racists

  • Herman - 2012-03-01 15:18

    He will never go away, he will just keep on appealing, it's never-ending.

      E=MC2 - 2012-03-01 15:48

      JuJu Herpes Malema

      Morama - 2012-03-01 20:02

      What were u thinking? AnC has already written out the appeal form dated for the very last day and would only get announced at around past 22H:00....and to denialists,please be rest assured the moment you see/hear that then that would be it with ya'll because this country would be ruled by the president of south africa Just like Robert Mugabe ruling Zimbwabwe!!!

  • Mashudu - 2012-03-01 15:21

    Malema is Buying time. Most of us want Him gone but the truth is He will fight until next ANC Conference in Mangaung . The Only thing that can stop Malema will only be if the Public Prosecutor Thuli Madonsela find anything dirty about him ASAP. Until then Malema won't stop.

      Robert - 2012-03-01 15:34

      HAHA, exactly. The Hawks, SAPS and SARS are about to drop the bomb and expose this Malema criminal !!! HAHAHAHAHAHA

      Paul - 2012-03-01 16:18

      Oh thats all coming for him, they've just waited until the political process for him was over as it. The Hawke\s will be on him and SARS not far behind, as now they wont have any political big-wigs trying to protect Juju - he's all on his own now (well apart from around 3000 lonely impoverished followers that is...) and so he'll get taken down more easily. Hope his Granny is holding his hand.

      Morama - 2012-03-01 20:09

      Oooooh Poor MAshudu,who is public prosecutor now,U are brainwashed and o wela dipolotiki ka bogodimo. Do some learning from those who claims to know as if the public protector has been there long time meanwhile the majority of us(Including) you Mashudu only start to know and utilising her only 18 years since south africa has been.

      Peter - 2012-03-02 10:07

      @Morama I am trying to read your posts with an open mind but all you write is total drivel.

  • ernest.gouws - 2012-03-01 15:31

    Just how many processes do you need to get rid of this boy holding an elected party to ransom? A complete reflection on how this country is being managed. Right is right and wrong is wrong, or is it in the eye of the BEE-holder?

  • Cosmas - 2012-03-01 15:33

    Can someone ask Malema to clear his office quickly i need my space. if he still wants to complain or appeal can you please tell him to do it from across the street, sies!

  • Frank - 2012-03-01 15:37

    I'll miss Malema and Polydonkey. My favourite village idiots. We had such good times.

      E=MC2 - 2012-03-01 15:49

      hahahaha!! i second that :-) Trolls, the both of them!

  • Ntuthuko - 2012-03-01 15:39

    Yep, I have been reading the news allday long. Once the ANCWL talk. you know you are gone. "Imbokodo le" If ANCWL commented that the decision of the NDC Must be respected. Kusuke Kuphelile ngawe. Kodwa I am of the opinion that the guys on top for the ANCYL are not to be trusted. No one amongst them was sacked for standing ground with on the notion of bully politics. My opinion they all must go.

  • mmoledis - 2012-03-01 15:41

    I will join the ANC now and be an active member because what I disliked about it is now resolved for good. South Africa need educated youth to take this country forward and nothing else like Malema who was talking lies that he is representing the poor while on the other side making use of the same poor people to make his wealth and ripping them. GONE ARE THE DAYS! IS TIME TO GO BACK TO SCHOOL BEFORE ENGAGING IN POLITICS.

      E=MC2 - 2012-03-01 15:49

      you forget that it was the ANC who created Malema

  • Sikanyiso - 2012-03-01 15:49

    I think this a turning point in the South African polotikos, one should expect more events. Seemingly the Youth League remain defiant and ANC has to work hard to persuade the entire league membership to accept the verdict, something which looks impossible. The league believes that the sanction imposed to their president is an attempt to silent the youth league as a collective. The ANC should be ready to face a strong rebellion from all corners of the country. I doubt very much that the youth league will accept the decision. It would be quite imperative for ANCYL members to remain calm and pretend as if they have accepted the decision. Bu on the other side they should develop a new strategy to counter-act the decision in a more intellectual manner. The first step is to mobilize masses countrywide and embarked on pieceful marches to draw sympathy from the public and demand the re-instatement of their president. They should stage these marches by-monthly. They should do our with libellous statements and mud slinging against the leadership of the ANC.

      ernest.gouws - 2012-03-01 16:17

      Sikanyiso, point taken, however, we live in a democracy and the only thing that counts is a vote, that's wat the liberation strugle was about. It is how a democracy works, HELLO. You got the vote, stop your internal fighting for POWER. You were elected to do a job and Serve the good citizens of this great country.

      Paul - 2012-03-01 16:20

      Well if thats the case then Byebye JZ I say. Just who we get in his place tho could be a bigger problem. Two EGO clashes don't make a country whole.

      Raymond - 2012-03-02 08:11

      ANCYL holding a peaceful march? Please man!

      Freddie - 2012-03-02 09:26

      "pieceful" marches... freudian slip there. Everything is usually in pieces after YL and Cosatu marches, they are certainly not peaceful.

  • jenny.gormanandrews1 - 2012-03-01 16:05

    As the wheel turns!! It has now come back to bite him in the )(&)(*&^&%^#%$!!!

  • Christopher - 2012-03-01 16:09

    In certain countries a threat to stability & peace would be viewed as a terrorist act. Malema threatens peace & stability in South Africa. Not everybody wants 2 kill each other, some of us actually want a successful & peaceful South Africa for all, irrelevant of color, we all want a future for our children & we all want 2 be treated equally. Human rights belongs 2 everybody! Malema is like the last kick of a dying horse. What amazes me is that when a person gets involved in politics u automatically get a free pass to be as corrupt as possible & steal as much as u can while u can. When government makes money they use it 2 line their pockets instead of putting it back into the country. A business will soon run bankrupt should the owner constantly have his hand in the till. Why not tackle real issues like crime, poverty, hunger, water issues, street kids & the homeless to name but a few. But instead lavish parties are thrown, private jets are bought. Where are the priorities??? Did we not go through a struggle for equality years ago? Then why stand for an oppressive government now? Its the South African people that count, that matters. Not some guy who sits @ night counting the money he has stolen from his people, plotting his next get rich quick scheme fueled by the naive & uneducated. We do not need negative influences in our country. We should not tolerate bad behavior from our politicians, it is us the people that put them where they are & they should answer 2 us.

      Alan - 2012-03-01 16:11

      Phew... you gonna write a sequel too?

  • ngwane.mzi - 2012-03-01 16:17

    The battle is not yet over until it's over, GO JUJU GO!! realy complicated...

      Alan - 2012-03-01 16:22

      yeah - complicated like really

      ernest.gouws - 2012-03-01 17:34

      GO,JUJU,GO!! No realy you can GO,Julius,GO

  • Alex - 2012-03-01 18:51

    Where are our elders when all this is unfolding? Are there no elders from Malema's home area which he can count on during such difficult times? There is a limit to which you can defy eldery people and i presume the same hold in politics. The problem here is not about holding different political views, it's all about respect. Are there no eldery people in Limpopo to clarify this to him? This is a disgrace and i suspect the man across the Limpopo might have a hand in leading this young man astray. Where is our ubuntu? If we still have it in our culture as we always claim, let it show and let it shine openly from our elders as from now!

  • Morama - 2012-03-01 19:44

    I feel sorry for those who are happy now because Mangaung is just around the corner where we will all rejoice with the leader of the brightful south africa!!! Enjoy this moment the real africans knows exactly what does this mean!!! "Appeasing the minority at expense of the majority who voted ANC into power"...but that was supposed to come to an end in two years time but because ANC had foreseen something....they want sufficient time to think but that's only untill december.

      Jacques - 2012-03-01 21:19

      Sorry buddy but without his guards with the corruption charges to follow everyone will turn there back. Watch my words. ANYL has 5000 members of which half hates his guts. Everyone looking for future post as the nature in African poletics will turn their backs. Why would they trow their future away now that they have tasted milk and honey. JU JU is gone my friend. They will trampel him to the top and when those guards are finaly removed Fat MAlema will be found floating upside down. Think about the KZN branch where they disbanded thise who opposed him. Now the knifes are being sharpened

      Alan - 2012-03-02 11:42

      I want some of that weed Morama is smokin...

  • ReunionofIntelligentMinds - 2012-03-01 22:10

    How many more times can he appeal? They must uphold his expulsion. For now he will get some attention from the gullable croud but once his money dries up he should HOPEFULLY dissapear from the political arena and attend to his cattle.

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