Strained ANC relations predicted

2012-12-13 18:52

Johannesburg - President Jacob Zuma and Deputy President Kgalema Motlanthe would probably find it difficult to work together should they retain their positions, an expert said on Thursday.

Political analyst Ebrahim Fakir said the contest for the African National Congress' top job could result in animosity between the two men and even their supporters.

"[However] he [Motlanthe] appears to be a party man and could rise above this," Fakir said.

"It is possible that they can still work together... [but] it's up to them to speak to their supporters as well."

Motlanthe's spokesperson Thabo Masebe on Thursday confirmed that the deputy president had accepted a nomination to stand for election as ANC president.

"The deputy president was informed by the electoral commission of the ANC that he was nominated for three positions - president, deputy president, and additional member [of the national executive committee]," Masebe said.

Motlanthe gave the commission his decision on Tuesday.

Another political analyst Steven Friedman on Wednesday said Motlanthe's acceptance of a nomination did not change who would win or lose.

"I think Mr Motlanthe knows that. The ANC's president is chosen by the branches and the branches have overwhelmingly voted for Mr [Jacob] Zuma," he said, on the sidelines of a panel debate at Constitution Hill.

He said unless hundreds of delegates at the party's elective conference ignored what their branches had decided, Zuma would be re-elected as president.

Many of Zuma's allies have warned Motlanthe that if he contests the incumbent at Mangaung they would not support him for deputy president, but rather give their vote to businessman and national executive committee member Cyril Ramaphosa.

Ramaphosa has been nominated by some provinces for the role of deputy president. It was not clear though whether he had accepted.

Onus on Zuma supporters

Fakir said if Motlanthe lost the race for president he would still be in the race for deputy president, contesting Ramaphosa if he accepted nomination.

However, it would be up to the Zuma supporters to decide if they were going to play "hard and fast" and refuse to support him.

"The Zuma people now have to consider whether they want to imprint this culture that if someone runs against their preferred candidate they exclude them.

"The onus is on them," he said.

With uncertainty around Ramaphosa's acceptance of the nomination there were questions about his business interests and the impact his election would have.

Fakir said as ANC deputy president Ramaphosa's business interests would legally not be a problem for now.

"He's not deputy president of the country, he remains a private citizen. However, there is a public morality question that will come into play... If he becomes deputy of the country then different calculations apply," he said.

When looking at the figures which emerged out of the provincial nomination conference it seemed clear that Zuma was set to retain his position and serve a second term.

Zuma had received 2 521 nominations from the ANC's nine provinces and Motlanthe received 863.

Despite the numbers Fakir said things could change.

When it came to voting, ANC members could "show the middle finger" and vote for who they personally wanted to lead the party, Fakir said.

"Look at the number breakdown - Zuma has 2 521 out of the 4 500 delegates. That is the majority, but what about the couple of hundred people who will be able to be persuaded?"

  • sharon.erwin.96 - 2012-12-13 19:01

    So who will be the VP if they do retain their positions? I nominate Julius - that will REALLY irritate Jacob!!

      colin.dovey - 2012-12-13 19:26

      Why all the fuss - the ANC will be out after 2014 - there is much more talent available elsewhere.

      JanGrimbeek - 2012-12-13 19:41

      Ai Sharon, what kind of question is that ?. If they do retain their positions then it will be as it is now, with Motlanthe as the VP.

      sharon.erwin.96 - 2012-12-13 19:56

      @ Jan, will Jacob want Kgalema as his VP after Kgalema challenged him? I somehow don't think so, maybe Kgalema will join Thabo at the AU. Anyways, I was just having a bit of fun, the outcome of Mangaung has already been determined, this whole voting thing is just windowdressing.

      colin.dovey - 2012-12-13 20:55

      @craig - the way to win in modern politics is by creating viable coalitions - and the DA has been working on that for a long time now - don't underestimate them. The ANC approach is crude "politicking" based on past, and outdated struggle credentials, and cadre deployment. As for smoking...I will leave that to you, as you seem to know more about that than I do.....good luck :-0

  • marcdefl - 2012-12-13 19:04

    Most moral honest people would battle to work with this clown of a president. Viva Mothlante Viva - save our beloved country. The majority of South Africans need a moral LEADER not a dancing singing clown. Viva Mothlante Viva.

  • themba.thwala.775 - 2012-12-13 19:06

    Zuma and "work" cannot be in the same sentence. I would hardly call reading speeches that Zuma cannot understand, dancing and giggling in between, "work." Honestly Fakir!

  • audrey.gono.3 - 2012-12-13 19:07

    politics is a dirty game both of them must not be too confident.

  • en.gineer.359 - 2012-12-13 19:16

    Wait wait does one become an expert in politics? Confused

  • mashelp - 2012-12-13 19:16

    Democracy at its best. I like what Deputy Kgalema is doing, so that there won't be so called unopposed.

  • chris.potgieter.73 - 2012-12-13 19:16

    Bottom line remains that the vote rigging has been done already. A countries President MUST be elected by all the voters and not just chosen delegates who are identifiable and bribable.

  • Bongeka - 2012-12-13 19:20

    Here we go again. Comrades, this is not about Zuma or Motlanthe but about who has the interest of all South Africans at heart. These positions fighting is not taking us any where but bringing is back to where we are if not worse. Integrity deosn't exist in thise leaders anymore.

      hugo.lategan - 2012-12-13 19:55

      Well put Bongeka! It is up to the people to take a real stand on integrity.

      Bongeka - 2012-12-13 21:08

      Thanks Hugo. It breaks my heart when I see people that we so trusted with our votes letting us down like the current leadership does.

      luviwe.jay - 2012-12-13 22:28

      @Bongeka, now is your opportunity to use your power, which is your vote come 2014. It seem so far but yet so close.

  • juicecard.tshaka - 2012-12-13 19:24

    People should understand that the wishes of the top leadership prevailed in the branches,which maybe totally different at the conference since each delegate vote for his own concience.Anything can happen MR Friedman, haven`t you heard the word UPSET before?

      hugo.lategan - 2012-12-13 19:57

      Let's pray and hope for a big upset!

  • ruben.maistry - 2012-12-13 19:29

    On the other hand, Obama and Romney will work together for the beterment of all Americans. Can't these fools learn from that.

      luviwe.jay - 2012-12-13 20:01

      No they can't. When you have a different view to me you are my enemy. Look at the purging after Polokwane and even now it is not going to be different. Any bet?

      nic.nomicos.3 - 2012-12-13 22:21

      Agree to dissagree? Not in Africa....

  • Montagnes.Bleues - 2012-12-13 19:30

    OH, and here you have all been saying (including twoheads zuma) that you all do what the collective decide and he loves his colleagues very dearly in any event, especially mbeki. Zuma never has been and is not an "All or Nothing Dictator" now is he?

      nic.nomicos.3 - 2012-12-13 22:19


  • JanGrimbeek - 2012-12-13 19:38

    There's already strained relations in the ANC, nothing to predict !!

  • zolisa.dlokovu - 2012-12-13 20:18

    The road to Mangaung

  • patrick.mahungela - 2012-12-13 20:32

    He has got the rights like anyone else so its his rights he acceptate the nomination without fear hea true gettlemanwhether win or loose he excercise his rights

  • debduplessis - 2012-12-13 21:48

    Yip Zuma ruined a 100 year old party ... *chuckle chuckle* & ANC is out one way or other :))))) LOL

      debduplessis - 2012-12-13 21:51

      aaaggggg shame!

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