Zuma could be kicked out - Gumede

2012-08-06 18:00

Johannesburg - President Jacob Zuma could be ousted like his predecessor, Thabo Mbeki, if he is re-elected at the ANC’s conference in Mangaung in December.

His re-election could even split the party, political analyst and writer William Gumede has said.

Mbeki was ousted as president in 2008 by the ANC, nine months after Zuma was elected part president and a few months before the end of his term.

Gumede, whose book Restless Nation is set to be launched on Tuesday, spoke to businesspeople at a breakfast in Rosebank on Monday.

He said Zuma only seems to have support in three provinces – KwaZulu-Natal, Mpumalanga and the Free State, and his position isn’t as secure as he would have liked.

Zuma also has divided support in the trade unions, and there might be strong enough support for his ousting a year or two after Mangaung.

Gumede also said some in trade unions who wanted to see government policies change, might be unhappy with Zuma’s re-election and lose patience. There is a chance that this group could split from the ANC.

He said because Zuma doesn’t have a convincing majority support, his lobbyists might try to convince or intimidate any possible opponents not to stand against him in December.

Another strategy could be to strike a deal with someone like businessman Cyril Ramaphosa, who would then become Zuma’s deputy in the party and president of the country.

Ramaphosa could also agree to soothe Zuma’s fears about losing his position, such as possible prosecution for corruption and loss of business for him and his family, Gumede said.

He said Deputy President Kgalema Motlanthe’s strategy was to convince people to support him on the basis of policy, not on the basis of his opposition to Zuma.

“Kgalema appears as someone who has no view, but he is saying to factions if you support me, it’s on my terms,” he said.

Motlanthe might step out of the way in Mangaung if the fight gets dirty, Gumede said. This would provide an opportunity for Housing Minister Tokyo Sexwale, who also has his eye on the presidency, to step up.

“Tokyo’s tactic seems to be that he’ll fight hard and dirty like Zuma, and that he’s happy to stitch together his constituencies from people like the [ANC] Youth League and the unions,” Gumede said.

Analyst and author Daniel Silke, who also spoke at the event, said the positive about a second term for Zuma could be that he’d be more secure in his presidency, knowing that he cannot serve another term.

He would spend less time “looking over his shoulder” and could be more decisive, Silke said.

He said the debate in the ANC should really be around Planning Minister Trevor Manuel’s National Development Plan, and how it could be implemented.

“It is really sad for the country and the ANC that this wasn’t what the ANC’s policy conference was all about,” he said.

- Gumede’s book launch takes place at Exclusive Books in Hyde Park on Tuesday night.

  • christelle.james.7 - 2012-08-06 18:13

    Being president and being rugby coach seems to be the 2 most dangerous jobs in SA.

      barry.mcbride - 2012-08-06 19:06

      And being a miner, taxi driver, and farmer!

      christelle.james.7 - 2012-08-06 19:42

      B, talking about your butt on the line to be fired at any time. What you are talking about is the serious stuff in the country:-( The other two have become the joke of the leas Meyer seems to be doing an ok job for a change:-)

      mark.singh.9889 - 2012-08-07 08:40

      Having any job in SA is dangerous... you never know when you could get mugged, hijacked, murdered, etc, etc

      malcolm.macleod.562 - 2012-08-07 12:16

      Dangerous how? Have any presidents being killed? Mugged? Assaulted? Any even remotely close assassination attempts? All I've seen them do is steal lots of money and get away with it, doesn't seem very dangerous at all.

      christopher.saint.3386 - 2012-08-08 14:26

      Well at least if you a rugby coach and you do not get fired! Lets just hope it happens with the presidency.

  • humphrey.s.mbothwe - 2012-08-06 18:18

    Cry the beloved ANC.

      pieriewaaier.zooms - 2012-08-06 19:00

      @ Keith Murphy. What an utterly ridiculous statement of no value whatsoever! How you make the connection is beyond any logic and indicative of a limited & constrained cerebral function.

      irene.buthelezi.1 - 2012-08-06 19:31

      Nothing 'beloved' about cANCer. Bunch of corrupt, thieving, rubbish.

      irene.buthelezi.1 - 2012-08-06 19:32

      Keith Murphy ~ Another low class one I see.

      devon.riley.52 - 2012-08-07 02:09

      Die the beloved Anc

      duncan.gill1 - 2012-08-07 23:35

      was a great movie"Cry the beloved country"a time when for all that was wrong South Africa still had soul..nice comment!

  • TawwaTienie - 2012-08-06 18:19

    What about all corruption

      kingkongVB - 2012-08-06 19:11

      what about it its the norm

  • mutiraasi - 2012-08-06 18:21

    May he be ousted! Fast!

  • john.barbarian.9 - 2012-08-06 18:21

    I think Kgalema Motlanthe will step out. Cyril Ramaphosa will take the presidency as deputy. Tokyo regards to him, but not this time.....I forgot to say about Zuma. Probably is no needed...

  • godfrex.khumalo - 2012-08-06 18:26

    it seems mbeki's tears are not falling down....

      irene.buthelezi.1 - 2012-08-06 19:34

      @Jamba ~ We'd be far better off if his brother was captain. Very clever man.

      tasmee.hylkema - 2012-08-06 20:40

      @ Godfrey, I would vote for Moeletsi Mbeki anyday. He would be a move in the right direction.

  • masupa.tsela - 2012-08-06 18:27

    People zuma might be out sooner, but wat does a weak or death of anc going to mean to south africa. Temporary happiness and perpetual slavery when sir n madam are back on the driving seat. I dread dat future!

      azande.futhi - 2012-08-06 18:31

      future without zuma @ helm is my wish, whoever else takes over i'm happy.

      husaberg.twostroke - 2012-08-07 02:23

      masupa you made me laugh. Jys lekker snaaks When Sir and Madam are back on the driving seat. Here tog dis funny.

      nigel.vanysendyk - 2012-08-07 07:40

      OFFS, listen you brainwashed idiot, the DA IS NOT GOING TO BRING BACK APARTHEID !!!! GET IT......

      deon.louw.7505 - 2012-08-07 09:52

      The ANC and PW / Nats used the same argument: The Big black danger (swart gevaar) and now the White danger. We seemed to forget that this is a democracy.

      galmzala - 2012-08-07 12:43

      Masupa when I was young my granmothers house was maintained by municipality and still stands, we had text books (sharing)but teachers know they are place,nurses, doctors and police got jobs and no load shedding,ANC did the opposite of everything, which department is working propely under ANC? PLEAS refresh my memory. Protest are everywhere, watch news everyday it is depressing to read about our corrupt officials. we are a laughing stok.But I have faith in our SAns they will make the right decision. ANC there were suppose to maintain what we have and upgrade, not to chow money and d nothing except fighting within themselves they are focuss has shifted, they dont care about us, it is all about tenders tenders and tenders,

      duncan.gill1 - 2012-08-07 23:39

      You Sir astound me with your insight..cause what you mean is that after 18 years all that is left is for sir and madam to run it all again,what a sad terrible failure this ANC have been you mean?

      duncan.gill1 - 2012-08-07 23:44

      Galmzala,the fact that you see what has happened is a bright light shining through the dark..don't you know its up to you to convince more that the truth is the truth ..then maybe a better future will give me great hope my man..God bless you..I have tears in my eyes you have made my day!

  • shirley.steenkamp - 2012-08-06 18:29

    What difference does it make-they are all just as bad!!!!

  • douglas.reid.921 - 2012-08-06 18:30

    the snake swallows its own tail

  • wendy.schneider3 - 2012-08-06 18:35

    let's kick the whole bunch out. not just one!!!!!

  • OkaMaMthiyane - 2012-08-06 18:40

    De ANC has done inaf already i wld b a happy camper if it jst retired oltogether nt jst de polygamist

      Michael - 2012-08-06 18:48

      Please write proper English Chief. This is an important site of mature people who analyse politics of the country.

      pisciotta - 2012-08-07 01:31

      Oka - get a new keyboard or go back to school. Wait, don't bother going back to school. Nothing is taught there.

  • keith.murphy.9638 - 2012-08-06 18:49

    Its time to elect allan Boesak now kwaaak !!! Boesak for Presidency and Malema for governor of the reserve bank

      kelvyn.davidson.1 - 2012-08-06 19:26

      too funny bru

  • tebo.w.ganyani - 2012-08-06 18:55

    bliv you me... As much as yo' all hate it malema is goin 2 b arwnd once more\r\n''Boy politics is a dirty game.\r\nThrz is no christianity in politics\r\nthrz no saints in politics\r\nyou use, u get used, u gt screwed\r\nur histroy''!!! By history teacher sir khumalo

      Randomhero6661 - 2012-08-07 10:26

      an de b no structha in yo words...

  • Michael - 2012-08-06 19:01

    This Gumede guy want to sell his book through wrong analysis. If Zuma wins, the top six is on his side and majority in the NEC thereof, T Mbeki was removed because he was challenging court finding that cabinet meddled in the case againts Zuma, that was seen as working againts ANC that was then led by Zuma, and alreaddy Zuma trial was dividing the ANC and was not in the best interest of the country to proceed with, people dont just wake up and go remove the president like that, and who are those people who will be so powerful to remove him?

  • The-Azanian - 2012-08-06 19:05

    Its official, the real citizens of this country are our inteligent A n C memberz...its like a creche lol, we just cant have an unvacuuuuuumed skull to lead our country since millions of years ago.

      devon.riley.52 - 2012-08-07 02:26

      Oh wow I can tell the A n C memberz are so intelligent. (not)

  • zikhona3 - 2012-08-06 19:12

    Zuma must honor SA people not stand for Prez. The race should be between Motlante

      mo.matt.14 - 2012-08-07 09:53


  • tobydt - 2012-08-06 19:19

    Gumede's just quoting the $h17 I have been saying :P

  • refilwekhumalo.precious - 2012-08-06 19:22

    Zuma must go....................

      johan.maree.5036 - 2012-08-07 10:45

      ANC must go, all the same fat cats!

  • lionel.defrontignac - 2012-08-06 19:26

    Who cares? The ANC has degenerated into a motly crew of self-seeking fat cats - power struggles make no diffs to the rest of us

  • sifiso.msimango - 2012-08-06 19:28

    i think these analysts have their wires crossed, coz their facts have got no weight at all, 2 me this is what they wish and they can forget. the problem here is jz has got no contestant, mohlanthe is clueless, he cant run the country coz everything he says one cannot understand, he has got no vision/mission u name it. tokyo wont feature at all coz he is like a dry washing on the line, he moves with the wind and ramaphosa does not look interested in this whole rubbish except keeping on pocketing cash

      mo.matt.14 - 2012-08-07 09:54

      And that is just the problem. It appears there are no true and good leaders left in the ANC... So what now?

      galmzala - 2012-08-07 12:54

      BEST solution bye bye ANC

  • Johan De Beer - 2012-08-06 19:43

    Tokyo seems dangerous. Anyone who seeks main support from ANCYL can't be trusted.

  • victor.davi3 - 2012-08-06 19:44

    For The Best Zuma Deserve a second Term-being the President of RSA, come presidential elections come

      mo.matt.14 - 2012-08-07 09:55

      Please enlighten us to the reasons you think he "deserves" that second term. What has he done in the first term that makes him so great??

      Shonisani - 2012-08-07 13:35

      In Kzn

  • konanani.rachicoper - 2012-08-06 19:50

    Zuma must step down.

  • kevin.pitzer - 2012-08-06 20:02

    Pass the presidency amognst pals seems to be the future of this fine country !Voters beware of this silent snake !

  • Synomore - 2012-08-06 20:03

    Zuma said he'll serve 1 term like Madiba people like Tokyo used that to support him since now he seems to going for a second term they want to remove him, now we hear juju saying he is corrupt and rapist why did they support him in the first place i never supported him i knew that the same people who were supporting him will turn against him i was right.

      kevin.pitzer - 2012-08-06 20:24

      Oh yes so many were and in my terms so right but the mass who do have the vote ... what do they understand:

  • patrick.makgeledise - 2012-08-06 20:07

    What happend to Mbeki, is going to happen to Zuma and the one after him and the one after until only God knows when......

      kevin.pitzer - 2012-08-06 20:25

      A youthful participation had to happen....THANKS.

  • phumlani.veliti - 2012-08-06 20:09

    Kangaroo or horse kick? ouch lol

  • fanie.viljoen.73 - 2012-08-06 20:15

    Zuma will most probably be elected again. The ANC has shown they can not stand for the greater good of any outcome needed. Zuma is also a lot smarter than he gets credit for, politics is not for wimps.

  • Perfume5 - 2012-08-06 20:25

    I thought the headline said "Zuma is kicked out"

  • ken.grimblegrumble - 2012-08-06 20:26

    As a DA supporter I truly hope Zuma will win the Presidency a second time. I think ANC voters deserve another 5 years under his rule. Tough Love.

      leaproach.thekeeper - 2012-08-06 23:05


      Stephen - 2012-08-08 08:20

      haha spot on

  • Stephen Radebe - 2012-08-06 20:26

    Who cares? The ANC has degenerated into a motly crew of self-seeking fat cats-power struggles make no diffs to the rest of the ANC.

  • lebakeng.tjale - 2012-08-06 20:45

    I thought the headline says he is kicked out, I ws about to celebrate....waiting for that moment.

  • Fedix - 2012-08-06 21:13

    Sounds like gumede is a false prophet who has a doomsday wish to see a divided ANC. It will take a few decades to convince blacks to vote a party like DA. Let's see if his prophesies will ever materialize. The only party that will collapse the ANC will be a strong black opposition.

      phumlani.ndlovu.52 - 2012-08-08 01:17


  • ndyeboreginaldmazawule - 2012-08-06 21:20

    So Ramaphosa has Zuma as his shadow in all his businesses

  • Amanda - 2012-08-06 21:20

    Here we have the next bunch of hyenas (ANC) just waiting in the wings. Same old. Same old.

  • thabo.modiba.7 - 2012-08-06 21:40

    He is a President, Grand father, Father, Husband, Fiancé, Boyfriend, Widower, Sugar dady, Chairperson of AIDS Council, Comrade, Colleague, Chancellor @ University of KZN,Celebrity,... too much for 1 man.

      yolande.rwaai - 2012-08-07 08:23

      Lol @ boyfriend and sugar-daddy! True though

      mo.matt.14 - 2012-08-07 09:58

      You forgot rapist and thief

  • aubrey.k.masola - 2012-08-06 22:30

    He must go I can't take it any more.Zuma pls Do us a favour take Ur wifes n disappear go to America or some where.

      Perfume5 - 2012-08-07 08:13

      The past and present Presidents of America only have one wife - perhaps he can go with them to Swaziland :-)

      luke.dekoker - 2012-08-07 15:53

      God help America..they already have a few like zuma!!

  • Singatha - 2012-08-06 23:57

    So here we have it in a nutshell JZ's presidency,fear of "possible prosecution for corruption and loss of business for him and his family, Gumede said." and nothing for the people of this country.

      Ayanda Mathunjwa - 2012-08-07 09:32

      They are all in it for themselves, even those you prefer my friend will disappoint, Mandela set a president by being in office for one term, why can't they all do the same, a president should serve one term in office and that goes for MP's too:(

  • mo.chalale - 2012-08-07 01:05

    The Premier of the Free State supports Zuma, NOT the people of the Free State...

      Shonisani - 2012-08-07 13:30

      Thanx for clarity

  • pisciotta - 2012-08-07 01:27

    One can only hope!

  • eric.f.moloi - 2012-08-07 02:00

    Who is in fact a good leader afta Mandela?cos i only see powermongers who r only de to serve their selfish political interests,leaders r born,not created

      luke.dekoker - 2012-08-07 15:56

      You must not forget, a lot of people (comrades in CancER) got very rich during mandela's time as president!!

  • wayne.faulds - 2012-08-07 07:20

    And we all hold our breath in hope...........

  • dianne.neyt - 2012-08-07 08:21

    Throw him out NOW....Impeachment?????

  • sipho.masilela2 - 2012-08-07 08:30

    What goes around,comes MBEKI

      Ayanda Mathunjwa - 2012-08-07 09:26

      It looks like the knives are out, watch your back Jack:-)

  • Jules - 2012-08-07 08:55

    I just wish the ANC would spend as much effort on service delivery as they currently do on clinging onto individual power.

      Perfume5 - 2012-08-07 12:44

      They are making sure their coffers are lined with tax-payers money before bowing out. Everyone wants a ride on the gravy train, some are jumping off after enriching themselves, others are getting off as they feel their turn has come. They need to realise the wind changes direction, never blows in the same direction.

  • byron.jay.37 - 2012-08-07 09:05

    "Mangaung in December." Lets see...

  • winifred.watson.9 - 2012-08-07 09:25

    We will have to be careful of sexwale, he will be no better than zuma. Already he is opening himself to the dancing puppet senario. We have already seen how zuma dances when they putll the strings, I sure we dont want another entertainer. Sexwwale has already been hand in hand with juju in that special family trust fund, so he has a dark area in his corner. Only God knows where we are heading and my 6th sense tells me its not a very good place.

  • francois.v.eeden.3 - 2012-08-07 09:27

    comrades!!!!...yeah right...

  • jwdupreez - 2012-08-07 10:11

    Zuma is a criminal and due to the state of the economy - crime & education - he sets the example that CRIME pays and it is tolerated THUS = help yourselves. Unless someone with integrety comes forward FAST - South Africa is doomed to follow the rest of AFRICA down the drain!! ALSO - forget about Ceryl Ramaphosa as a candidate because he is a VENDA and the racist/racial attitude of the ANC will not tolerate and outsider as leader of the ANC/Country. It seems as if the NEC is incapable of placing the countries needs above their own selfserving chronism and greed. Unless they come to their senses at the upcoming party conference and rid SA once and for all of these Zuma-gansters South Africa is in for a ROUGH RIDE.........

  • gvangreunen - 2012-08-07 10:27

    What's to get excited about? All that happens is that one incompetent is replaced by another! Different faction, same result!