Election in South Africa.
With election results slowly trickling in, some remarkable shifts
in voting patterns are starting to crystallise.
In the Western Cape, where News24 has projected that the DA
will hang on to its majority, the party will also hit a historical high among black
voters, while the ANC will likely hit a historical low.
"The DA will get the most black votes ever as a proportion
of the vote, and so will the EFF. Both parties will likely hit 9% among black
voters in the province," says News24 elections analyst Dawie Scholtz.
Nationally, however, the DA has shed some of its support to
the Freedom Front Plus, who is up to 3% or 4% of the vote.
"I think there's a few issues at stake here," says
former ANC MP and political analyst Melanie Verwoerd.
"In the last election the DA ran a very effective anti-Zuma
campaign. They urged people to form a united front against Jacob Zuma and not to
waste their vote on smaller parties. This time around, the majority of white
people don't have a big problem with Cyril Ramaphosa, so that argument doesn't hold.
Afrikaans people like Ramaphosa, and are now rather going back to a party that
represents their interests better.
"The DA, who is more liberal and English, doesn't sit
that well with many Afrikaans people, especially when it comes to things like schooling
and language. Expropriation without compensation really scared them and the DA
was at times a bit iffy on this whereas the FF+ made it a big deal."
News24's current projections give the FF+ up to 15%-18% of
the white vote in the inland provinces, all of which is coming from former DA
"That is a real shift in the white electorate and complicates
the DA's math. They're losing white votes but getting black votes," says
According to him, race is still a major factor when people decide
how to vote.
"It's very explicitly racial. The DA is talking about
race-based redistribution. They are making noises about BEE. Conservative white
voters very actively oppose those things and that's what it fundamentally comes
down to. At a policy level, many white voters are just not comfortable with where
the DA is going with this and it's been coming for a while."
Patricia de Lille's GOOD party may have also eaten into the
coloured vote in the Western Cape and is expected to get about 4% here. This will be offset somewhat by the DA's extra votes from high turnout and black support in
The ANC's poor performance in the province comes as no surprise.
"As much as the DA was a lesson in self destruction,
the Western Cape ANC has just done it over a longer term," says Verwoerd. "They
have had leadership issues for a long time. They're disorganised, they have no
money, and have had massive fallouts. One of the most telling things in their campaign was that while
Ramaphosa was talking about anti-corruption at one event, they announced that they were taking money from Iqbal Survé. They then said they
were giving the money back. Then Survé said they have not given the money back.
It's just a mess."
will make more projections as reliable and tested data becomes available.