Independent analyst Dawie Scholtz has built a mathematical projection model for News24 which we will use to project the most likely results of the election.
As voter turnout data starts to trickle in, early analysis shows a worrying drop in township turnout numbers. While the data is not conclusive or representative of the whole country, it could indicate a problem for the ANC in particular.
"As of 13:00, in our suburban sample 36.5% of voters turned out, and 28% of the township sample turned out," said News24 election analyst Dawie Scholtz.
"This is a gap that is emerging between townships and suburbs, as turnout as of 13:00 is higher in suburbs than in townships, and this would be of serious concern to the ANC."
In order to track turnout for Wednesday’s sixth democratic elections, Scholtz has started the hashtag #turnouttracker on Twitter and asked his Twitter followers to tweet:
- Their voting district number;
- The number of people that have voted before them;
- The time they voted.
Hundreds of people have so far tweeted Scholtz for his model, and this is first detailed analysis of turnout patterns as of 13:00:
- In a sample of 175 suburban voting districts, 437 000 voters turned out;
- In a sample of 114 township voting districts, 239 000 voters turned out.
Scholtz has sourced data from the hashtag #turnouttracker, as well as from on the ground.
The data sourced represents mainly suburban areas such as Tshwane, Johannesburg, eThekwini, Cape Town and Nelson Mandela Bay, and is not representative of South Africa as a whole.
You can still tweet Scholtz with the hashtag #turnouttracker @DawieScholtz
Find everything you need to know about the 2019 National and Provincial Government Elections at our News24 Elections site, including the latest news and detailed, interactive maps for how South Africa has voted over the past 3 elections. Make sure your News24 app is updated to access all our elections coverage in one place.