Cape Town - The probability of an exit by Finance Minister Pravin Gordhan has grown because of increasingly belligerent comments from the Zuma camp and wider attacks against National Treasury, according to emerging markets economist Peter Attard Montalto of Nomura.
He also thinks the removal of the deputy minister of finance is "most likely".
"However, the ultimate aim of a reshuffle will be to stop the increasing momentum the Zuma camp is sensing from SACP members, including those in the National Treasury from swinging the elective conference their way in December. President Jacob Zuma is running out of time, however," said Montalto.
"A lack of reshuffle by end March may lead to a significant market rally. A reshuffle, however, could cause major market dislocation especially with a March Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) hike. Ultimately, President Zuma will wait for the best moment, requiring market patience."