This year is going to require some tough balancing for the National Treasury's budget office, with its biggest headache currently being rising global inflation and interest rates.
The input costs for commodity exporters - who were responsible for the surprise bumper tax collections in the previous fiscal year - are rising. So, the repeat of that tax windfall is threatened each day that global prices rise. On the other hand, the rising global interest rates mean that the government has to deal with higher debt-servicing costs than last year.
"You'll remember that in 2021, one of the biggest contributors to South Africa's recovery, which was stronger than expected, was due to a supportive external environment. To the extent that the external environment becomes less supportive, that's a problem for the local economy and that's a problem for the fiscus," said the head of the National Treasury's budget office, Edgar Sishi.