Treasury’s forecast for economic growth, which forms the basis of this week’s entire medium-term budget policy statement – known as the mini budget – has struck some analysts as being hopelessly overoptimistic.
The forecast for GDP growth this year was lowered from 0.9% to 0.5%. More importantly, it was projected to be 1.3% next year and 2% the year after that.
Early this month, the International Monetary Fund put South Africa’s economic growth this year at 0.1%. And, according to the organisation’s World Economic Outlook – a semi-annual compendium of forecasts – targeted growth will be 0.8% next year.