Week ahead: Trade war back with a vengeance after Jackson Hole


The escalating trade war means investors won't have long to chew over the outcome of weekend meetings of central bankers in Wyoming and world leaders in France.

Friday saw the US and China move further away from a deal to resolve frictions as China introduced plans for fresh levies and President Donald Trump responded.

The tit-for-tat thwarted the hopes of investors that President Donald Trump will grant some sort of reprieve ahead of the September 1 deadline for tariffs on about $110bn of Chinese goods.

Here's our weekly rundown of other key economic events and click here for more from Bloomberg Economics:

US and Canada

Federal Reserve officials may take some time off after spending the weekend at their annual confab in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, at which Chairman Jerome Powell signaled room to cut interest rates again in September.

Durable goods data is released on Monday and other highlights for the week includes reports on consumer confidence on Tuesday and the latest snapshot of second quarter gross domestic product on Thursday and University of Michigan sentiment on Friday.

Thursday’s trade data will give a sense of international commerce amid the trade war.

In Canada, second-quarter GDP numbers are out on Friday, which should inform how quickly the Bank of Canada joins in on global trend in monetary easing.

Europe, Middle East and Africa

With Germany on the possible brink of recession, Monday sees the release of the latest Ifo survey, which will provide insight into the latest thinking of German executives. The median of forecasts compiled by Bloomberg is for the gauge on business climate to fall to 95 from 95.7. The next day sees the government break down output data for the second quarter.

Euro-area economic sentiment and inflation data at the end of the week are predicted to remain tepid. Hungary is predicted to leave interest rates unchanged on Tuesday.

Israel's central bank may hold its base rate on Wednesday, but could signal plans to start cutting for the first time in more than four years as a strengthening shekel damps already low inflation.

Botswana will probably also hold its key rate on Thursday after inflation started picking from a record low in April. Zambia's inflation data on Thursday could support the central bank's projection that the rate will remain above its target band of 6% to 8% for most of the next two years, strengthening the case to continue bucking the global trend and tighten policy.


India's central bank board is set to meet on Monday. On the agenda: a decision on how large the final dividend to the government should be after having already made an interim payout of 280 billion rupees. India's GDP report on Friday may encourage further easing.

After its surprise rate cut in July, the Bank of Korea will meet again to set monetary policy on Friday. And on the data front, China's industrial profit numbers on Tuesday and a factory purchasing managers index on Saturday will be closely watched to see how the industrial sector is faring under the weight of sluggish growth at home and trade strains with the US.

In Hong Kong, July trade and retail sales data will likely show the economy continues to be affected by the trade war and local protests.

Latin America

Argentina remains in the spotlight of investors as its October election nears amid fears that presidential front-runner Alberto Fernandez will try to restructure the country's debt. Brazil may narrowly dodge recession this year, but second-quarter data due on Thursday is likely to show Latin America's largest economy remains stalled after contracting in the first quarter.

On the same day, Mexico's central bank will publish minutes of its latest monetary policy meeting when it decided cut rates for the first time in five years. The account, combined with a quarterly inflation report due on Wednesday, will help investors gauge how much lower rates can go in Mexico.


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