Thabi Leoka | The IMF loan is not SA's biggest debt problem

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Thabi Leoka
Thabi Leoka

The South African economy is in a much more precarious position than had previously thought. The recession will be deeper, and the effects will linger longer than we had anticipated.

High-frequency data that looks at affordability and consumer behaviour, such as vehicle and retail sales, is still in contraction and sectors such as manufacturing and mining, remain constrained. When forecasting economic growth, a consideration of the duration of the pandemic has to be made.

While we are not all epidemiologists, examples internationally show a stabilisation in infections after the peak has been reached, leading to the loosening of Covid-19 restrictions. As we head into the summer season, we are likely to socialise more and be a bit lax in our behaviour. This will likely result in increases in infections and depending on the rate of infections, we could go back a level.

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