Mkhize: About 12 million people in SA may have contracted Covid-19

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Zweli Mkhize.
Zweli Mkhize.
Lulama Zenzile
  • The actual number of people infected with Covid-19 could be about 18-fold more based on estimates from antibody studies.
  • Revised models predict that there are about 12 million, or roughly 20% South Africans with detected or undetected coronavirus.
  • As of Monday, there were 650 749 coronavirus cases and 15 499 deaths recorded.

An estimated 12 million people - nearly a fifth of the population - may have contracted Covid-19, the health minister says, as the country records significant declines in new infections.

South Africa had so far registered 650 749 cases or 47.8 percent of the total numbers recorded in Africa. At least 15 499 of those infected had died.

But the actual number of people who got infected could be much higher, possibly 18-fold more, based on estimates extrapolated from sample antibody studies.

Revised models "currently predict that there are probably about 12 million" South Africans with detected or undetected coronavirus, Health Minister Zweli Mkhize said in a statement released overnight.

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"This translates to about 20% of the population."

South Africa was conducting a national study aimed at providing accurate figures about the prevalence of coronavirus antibodies - a sign of infection - among its 58 million people.

Immunity

Mkhize said the drop in numbers of daily detected infections "raises the question of the level of immunity that may already be existing in society".

Leading vaccinologist Shabir Madhi, a professor at the University of the Witwatersrand, suggested infection rates could be as high as 40% in densely-populated parts of the country.

"What we have seen in South Africa - at least based on early data... is that in densely-populated areas of the country... between 35 to 40 percent of people have been infected with this virus," Madhi, who is also in charge of the South African leg of the Oxford Covid-19 vaccine trial, told an online meeting on Sunday.

Case numbers in South Africa fell from 10 000 to 15 000 a day in July to just under 2 000 in recent days.

On Monday the number of daily new infections plunged to 956, the second time in under a week that the numbers dropped below 1 000.

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