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Dawie Scholtz | Why the ANC sleepwalked into a disaster, and three scenarios ahead of 2024 elections

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(Photo by Gallo Images/Sharon Seretlo)
(Photo by Gallo Images/Sharon Seretlo)

The 2021 municipal election was an extraordinary one, that raised some complexities. News24's electoral analyst Dawie Scholtz breaks down what came out of this election and the implications for the future. 

This was an extraordinary election result. The ANC came in under 50% nationally for the first time, we saw the lowest voter turnout ever in South Africa and five of eight metro municipalities are now set to be governed by coalitions (in addition to 61 other hung municipalities across the country).

In order to understand this election outcome, there are two complexities to explore: Firstly, what was the shape of the electorate? In other words, who voted? And secondly, how did each of the demographic groups within the electorate vote? To explain this I've split this analysis into three sections:

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Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma has got it in the bag
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I foresee a second term for Cyril Ramaphosa
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