Election 2021: 49.3% of voters expected to vote for ANC but DA, EFF to get double-digit figures - poll

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Postponing October’s local government elections can simply not be allowed to happen, argues the SA Institute of Race Relations. Photo: Darren Stewart/Gallo Images
Postponing October’s local government elections can simply not be allowed to happen, argues the SA Institute of Race Relations. Photo: Darren Stewart/Gallo Images
  • According to an Ipsos poll, the ANC will get the lion's share of votes in the local government elections next month.
  • The poll found that the EFF and DA would also enjoy double-digit support.
  • In addition, it found that voters in rural areas were more likely to vote than those in urban areas.

Close to half of South Africa's voting population is likely to vote for the ANC in the local government elections next month, and the EFF and DA are likely to garner double-digit support.

That's according to an Ipsos poll which found that the ANC was leading the pack, even though it was by a narrow margin.

Ipsos undertook a computer-assisted telephone interviewing (CATI) study from 16 to 20 August, interviewing 1 501 randomly selected adults.

"Countrywide, almost half (49.3%) will draw a cross next to the name of the ANC, while the support for both the DA (17.9%) and the EFF (14.5%) respectively, is also in double figures. South Africa has a plethora of registered political parties, but very few of them currently garner more than 1% of support," the poll found.

READ | Election to go ahead between 27 October and 1 November, orders ConCourt

Out of those interviewed, 1.5% indicated their support for ActionSA.

The same number showed support for the ACDP.

It is estimated that the IFP could get 1.4% of the vote and the Freedom Front Plus could get 1.2%.

The survey found:

It is abundantly clear that not all eligible voters will vote in the local government elections at the end of October, so, 'if there were a local government election tomorrow, which political party or organisation will you vote for?' Seven in every 10 (71%) indicated that they would vote in the coming local government elections. The data [suggested that] they would also support a wide variety of parties.

On Friday, the Constitutional Court dismissed an application which the Electoral Commission of South Africa (IEC) lodged to have the local government elections held next year. The apex court ruled that the elections must take place between 27 October and 1 November 2021.

In its application to the court, the IEC argued that due to the Covid-19 pandemic, it could not organise constitutionally compliant elections for October.

Although the poll was not a prediction of the election, the Ipsos survey found that a large proportion of voters had made up their minds.

The report said that " 7.4% of those who indicated that they would vote in the local government elections are not yet allocated to a political party".

READ HERE | ConCourt elections ruling: IEC to meet at the weekend 'to chart the way forward'

"Predictions, for what they are worth, should only be made much closer to election day," the survey found.

Researchers also found that voters in rural areas were more likely to vote than those in urban areas.

"Looking at those who indicated that they do want to vote in the local government elections, it is interesting that the more rural provinces of Limpopo, [the] North West and the Eastern Cape top the list.

"And yet, metropolitan areas feature much more frequently in the travel plans of political leaders. The Free State has experienced a lot of political turmoil since the last national election, very much like [the] North West. It reacted totally differently with a much smaller proportion of voters wanting to participate in the local government elections," it said.

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