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Bafana Bafana are on the ropes after Liberia held them to a gut-wrenching 2-2 draw in an Africa Cup of Nations (Afcon) qualifier at Orlando Stadium on Friday.
Lyle Foster's first-half brace was not enough as the Lone Stars struck back in the second half and silenced the home crowd.
It was a draw that felt like a defeat, but Hugo Broos's charges can amend their wrongs in Monrovia as the two nations meet at the 22 000-seat Samuel Kanyon Doe Stadium.
With Bafana unsteadily positioned, the fate of Group K could be decided on Tuesday.
The group consists of three teams: Morocco, Liberia and South Africa. Zimbabwe were initially part of the group but were banned from qualifying for the tournament after their government's interference in the sport's administration.
That should have made Bafana's task of qualifying easy, but that has not been the case.
Morocco
The Atlas Lions (6 points) have already qualified for the Nations Cup after their victories against Bafana and Liberia last year.
Depending on the other results, a draw against either SA (June) or the Lone Stars (September) will determine whether they finish first or second place in Group K.
Morocco 2-1 Bafana Bafana
Liberia 0-2 Morocco
Bafana Bafana vs Morocco – June (Date TBC)
Morocco vs Liberia – September (Date TBC)
Bafana Bafana
South Africa have only accumulated one point from their two matches. A win against Liberia in Monrovia will secure their passage to Afcon in Ivory Coast in January.
A defeat for South Africa ultimately ends their quest for qualification.
Simply put, Bafana must win in Monrovia.
If the match ends in a draw, more calculations come into place.
Morocco 2-1 Bafana Bafana
Bafana Bafana 2-2 Liberia
Liberia vs Bafana Bafana – Tuesday, 28 March (18:00 SAST)
Bafana Bafana vs Morocco – June (Date TBC)
Liberia
The same applies to Liberia (1 point) after their defeat to Morocco and draw against Bafana last Friday.
Win, and they go to Afcon. If they lose, then they get to lick their wounds.
However, if the match ends in a draw, more calculations come into place.
Liberia 0-2 Morocco
Bafana Bafana 2-2 Liberia
Liberia vs Bafana Bafana – Tuesday, 28 March (18:00 SAST)
Morocco vs Liberia – September (Date TBC)
The tiebreaker
A draw means South Africa and Liberia go into their final match against Morocco needing to either win or draw, depending on each other's results.
If they end on the same points after all the games, the following then applies:
- Points in head-to-head matches among tied teams;
- Goal difference in head-to-head matches among tied teams;
- Goals scored in head-to-head matches among tied teams;
- Away goals scored in head-to-head matches among tied teams;
- If more than two teams are tied, and after applying all head-to-head criteria above, a subset of teams are still tied, all head-to-head criteria above will be reapplied exclusively to this subset of teams;
- Goal difference in all group matches;
- Goals scored in all group matches;
- Away goals scored in all group matches;
- Drawing of lots
*Regulations Article 14
