Is partition of Syria one of the intended outcomes? I hope not

2013-06-15 12:34

My learned friend and colleague, Mohamed Saeed,wrote an excellent, first hand primer about the 'civil war' taking place in Syria. Having had the benefit of travelling to that region almost to his peril, Saeed obtained a rare insight of what is cutting in parts of that battered country. He exposes what the bitter proxy war of super rivals namely Russia, Iran and, yes the US. is doing to the country.

Is partition of  Syria one of the intended outcomes? I hope not. So this is my take.

In a set piece decision, President Obama has issued an executive order reversing a decision to supply arms to the rebels opposing the Bashar Al Asad regime. Once again based on a spurious allegation, dismissed by UN Secretary General Ban Ki Moon that Asad used chemical weapons, it seems likely that the rebels wish list for the weapons required is about to come true.

How does this bode for the outcome in the regime. Its not a civil war, its a war by proxy stupid , that will see Syria become yet another Federally Administered Tribal Area (FATA) just as in Pakistan where the law is that 'there' s no law'. Anyone familiar with how this is panning out for Pakistan will note the unmitigated disaster that has become. A FATA is a politically inspired construct whose sole purpose is containment.

Its critical that people reading this understand how facile it is to dismiss that what's happening in Syria simply is a war between rival factions, one sunni based and the other shia based. Just as Iraq has become a faction ruled country,Syria is definitely heading in that direction. Make no mistake,I am opposed to the Bashar regime's gordhian knot on the country but I believe that partition will never achieve peace and stability and that it serves the interest of the armaments industry of Russia China,Iran and the US, and yes Israel. I base my analysis on how King Abdulah, Saudi Foreign Minister Saud al-Faisal and Turkey's Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan have persuasively presented an argument to Mr. Obama that saw reversal in the decision to arm the rebels fighting the Asad regime.

Meanwhile, so far a hundred thousand, if the count is substantially correct, have lost their lives and no doubt an equal number will follow. What we need to see is a UN asserting its powers free from the ideological restraints and dialogue that inform its actions and interpretation of what is best for Syria.Certainly inertia is not an option.

Proxy war? Like Iraq, there will never be a region with a central chain of government. What we will definitely see is what we are seeing in Libya with factions controlling swathes of land whose resources constitute the reason why there was regime change in the region.

A partition of Syria suits Israel whose arch rival Iran is Bashar's sponsor. A partition will see an area controlled by the Druze closer to the border with Israel, with the shia allied Alawites ruling the region near the coast with a large swathe controlled by Sunnnis, with that nebulous entity "al qaeda" hanging on to parts of the desert region for good measure.One cannot cancel out a kurdish region closer to the border with Turkey. This is probably the most likeliest of outcomes that a proxy war that finds the US engaged in with Europe as well in its corner. The nett result or outcome will be partition, though a fiction entity like Pakistan will be officially recognised.

Saeed is correct when he posits that a universally concerted effort is set in motion to get the rivals, free of their ideological bankers, on to the negotiating table and drum some sense into them that partition or dismemberment is not the solution.

My question remains. Is partition, real or psuedo, one of the intended outcomes for Syria. For the sake of peace that Syrians deserve,I hope not.

Saber Ahmed Jazbhay

@jazlaw24

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