The situation is dire for the ANC. Here's why


Remember, this is a party which has comfortably governed for 22 years – a party that’s used to overwhelming majority votes and which has become very accustomed to power.

Read more: DA wins Nelson Mandela Bay, beating ANC by 5%

The puzzle has not yet been fully completed, but the outline is clearly visible and most of the colouring-in has been done.

Just look at the depth of the ANC’s losses:

  • In Johannesburg the party has lost more than 16% in support since 2011. Their share of the vote was at 42% this morning.

  • In Pretoria (Tshwane) the ANC lost 14% of its support to the DA and EFF, managing to garner only 41% of the total vote.

  • In the whole of Gauteng the ANC’s support has fallen with 14% since 2011, and now sits at 45,06%. Compared with its support in 2014’s general election, when it garnered 54,52% of the vote in the province, this is a shocking slide – and in only two years.

  • In Port Elizabeth (Nelson Mandela Bay) the party’s weak governance has cost the ANC 10% of its support and relegated it to a minority party. The ANC now has 41% of the vote in that metro.

  • Nationally, the ANC’s support sits as slightly above 54% – a drop of more than 7% since the previous local government elections in 2011. In 2014’s general election the ANC had 62,15% of the vote.

  • These losses are not a mere one or two percentage points or a lost district municipality in the middle of nowhere. The voting results are a direct retribution for the ANC’s insistence of keeping Pres. Jacob Zuma in charge and the arrogant way in which the governing party treats its supporters as voting fodder.

  • The final results are yet to come and the picture will no doubt be fleshed out. But it’s safe to say our political situation is entering its most exciting phase since the negotiation period of 1990 – 1994.

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